In this series of ten posts, I will use graphs, figures and pictures to get a sense of the Sudanese predicament today. The focus is on peace, and especially the economic and financial logic of peace.
The following figure shows government budgets (current expenditure) between 1970 and 2011, and peace agreements (green) and changes in [...]Continue Reading →
The geographical inequality of income and investment in Sudan is striking. The figure below was drawn by me in the 1980s, based on an analysis of how the Sudanese economy had been restructured in the late 1970s and ‘80s, following the migration of most Sudanese professionals to the Gulf countries, and their remittances sent home, [...]Continue Reading →
In my presentation at the Youth, Conflict and Governance in Africa workshop at Yale University on March 1, 2014, I drew from findings and analysis in the third chapter of my forthcoming book, The Outcast Majority: War, Development and Africa’s Youth (University of Georgia Press, 2015). I spoke about urbanization, employment and livelihoods with [...]Continue Reading →
My main points are that peace needs money. More particularly, the way in which peace is financed determines the nature of that peace. Sustainable peace requires the right kind of money. I am not talking about financing peace processes—which are invariably good value for money, even if the day-to-day expenses of hosting delegates in hotels might appear to be extravagant—but rather the financing of the post-peace dispensation.
There has been much attention to how natural resources can be a curse rather than a blessing, and can drive conflict. There is less attention on how rental revenues, including natural resources along with aid and security cooperation rents, shape the prospects for peace. Nonetheless, there is a certain model for peacemaking that has become dominant in Africa, and that model has built-in assumptions about the nature of how peace will be financed.Continue Reading →
Technological changes, especially in the domain of Information and Communication Technology, have colored the recent history of these regions. And although wireless coverage here is mostly still far below the average levels found in Europe, South Africa or Kenya, having even relatively poor coverage is making a huge difference to ordinary people’s connectivity compared with the situation as recently as five years ago. Improvements in this domain are to be expected in the coming decade.Continue Reading →
There is no easier way of illustrating the applicability of this to post-2003 Iraq than in the inevitable post-poll political horse-trading that will inevitably follow April 30. Moreover, the dynamics of the rentier political marketplace so define the Iraqi political order that they are the cornerstone – the raison d’etre – of the resulting “national-unity” government and “power sharing”.Continue Reading →
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