Does the CES accurately reflect America’s religious landscape?
Comparing estimates about religion in America from the CES to the Pew Religious Landscape Study.
Showing 10 Result(s)
The issue with analyzing small groups in large-N surveys (and how to address it)
by Caroline Soler Recently, I was tasked with looking into the political opinions of blood donors in the Cooperative Election Study (CES) when I noticed that our demographics were off. Our sample showed that 53% of blood donors were men, but the data from America’s Blood Centers indicated that the actual proportion was only 46%. …
Have young voters really abandoned the Democrats?
by Caroline Soler, Brian Schaffner, and Stephen Ansolabehere Earlier last month, David Shor, now a data scientist at Blue Rose Research and someone who has drawn a lot of attention as an influential figure in Democratic politics, spoke on Ezra Klein’s podcast. He promoted the bold idea, based on his research at Blue Rose, that most groups of …
Announcing the 2025 Cooperative Election Study
There is power in numbers. Starting in 2006, a consortium of 39 universities came together to create the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (now the Cooperative Election Study), the first truly large-scale and cooperative academic survey project aimed at studying American elections. Our joint efforts have produced national sample surveys in excess of 50,000 respondents for …
Americans are more satisfied when their own party, rather than commissions, control redistricting
by the Carl Albert Congressional Research and Studies Center In the November 2024 elections, Ohio voters rejected a proposed constitutional amendment that would have created a citizen-led redistricting commission aimed at reducing gerrymandering. The proposal would have replaced the current Ohio Redistricting Commission on which elected officials serve as members. Our recently published article examining …
When the dust has settled from the election, is there anything Democrats and Republicans can agree on?
by Rebecca Bankhead and Jeremy C. Pope Heading into the 2024 election, lots of people want to believe that America is always and quite irrevocably polarized. It’s a reasonable place to start: Congress provides a never-ending stream of evidence and issues that divide Democrats and Republicans are highlighted in headlines nationwide, creating images of division …
CES estimates on the 2024 presidential election
Each election year, the Cooperative Election Study (CES) produces summary results from its pre-election interviews with American adults. The 2024 pre-election results, including dynamic crosstabs, can be found here. Results for key swing states can be found here. The survey shows Kamala Harris with a 4-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters (51% – …
Silent Identities: The dynamics and impacts of “not sure” responses to non-policy questions
by Kyle Krell The Pew Research Center says that “the basic goal of a good public opinion poll is to give everyone in the population, regardless of their wealth, age, education, race, knowledge of politics… an equal voice about the issues of the day.” Polls aim to be representative of and generalizable to the broader …
Do conservatives really have better mental health? Perhaps not.
by Thomas Hershewe, Zoe Kava, and Brian Schaffner Conservatives are happier and have better mental health than liberals, or at least that’s what surveys show. In a previous post, we concluded that conservatives rate their mental health higher than liberals, moderates, and the population as a whole; this mental health divide still persists even after …
What the 2022 midterm elections can tell us about what will happen in November
by Thomas Hershewe, Zoe Kava, and Brian Schaffner This post originally appeared on the Tufts Public Opinion Lab Blog. Despite being the rematch that some pollsters say voters “never really wanted”, the Biden-Trump election is returning. Many have pointed out that we’re in a strikingly similar spot as we were four years ago, just with …