Ukraine’s fate is in the hands of the world

By Tara Sonenshine, Professor of Practice of Public Diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University

Given the deadly turn in Russia’s war against Ukraine, with a ferocious escalation in the bombing of civilians in Kyiv and surrounding cities, the global community is being asked to stand strong against Russian President Vladimir Putin. A moment of reckoning is upon us.

At the United Nations, a resolution condemning Russia’s annexation of parts of Ukraine has been circulating among the 193 member nations. It calls on member states not to recognize Russia’s move and reaffirms the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. (At one point, there was discussion of a secret vote that Russia wanted, but the General Assembly voted for an open, public process so that every nation is on record.)

Ironically, one of the catalytic events of the last few days was the destruction of the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting Russia and Crimea — one of the key supply lines for Putin’s forces, and a symbol of Russian prowess. Built between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov in May 2018, the bridge represented Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Putin opened the bridge with fanfare at the time, saying, “in different historical epochs, even under the tsar priests, people dreamed of building this bridge.”

Now, with the bridge in pieces, Putin has labeled its destruction “an act of terrorism” and has vowed revenge. 

But will the international community stand firm to prevent the full-scale assault that could come, including the potential use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

To show unity and strength, the U.S. is hoping that 100 countries support the U.N. resolution, which is the number that voted to support a similar resolution in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea.  

Beyond Europe, countries such as India and South Africa are being pressured to vote in favor of the resolution. President Biden has met with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at the White House in recent weeks to persuade him to join the coalition of the willing to resist Putin’s aggression.

While often taking neutral positions, advocating diplomacy and dialogue, influential countries like South Africa and India must actively support the coalition against Moscow. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently used a meeting with Putin to publicly warn that “this is not the era for war.” But that is a far cry from supporting a U.N. resolution condemning Russia.

Oil is the reason countries like India remain neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. India and China together account for over half of all Russia’s oil exports. For developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia and South America, the rising price of fuel takes an enormous toll. Even Europeans, who mostly support Ukraine, are worried about the winter coming and gas prices soaring. 

War has a way of disrupting everything from food to supplies. But this is not a moment for any nation to stand idly by as witnesses to a war that could drag on for many more months, killing innocent civilians, further destabilizing Europe and dragging the world into a possible nuclear conflict.

Ukraine is begging for more weapons, and it is likely to get them. Another round of sophisticated air defense equipment is coming from Germany — a country often reluctant to get too deeply involved in transferring arms.

But war fatigue is real. Citizens quickly tire of spending money overseas, and every world leader is watching poll numbers closely. Americans remain supportive of Ukraine, according to recent Gallup polls, with a clear majority believing we should keep supporting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s goal of reclaiming territory. 

But there are signs of cracks in that support, with 24 percent of those asked in the Gallup poll saying the U.S. is currently doing too much in Ukraine. Another poll by the left-leaning Quincy Institute suggests war weariness. That poll found that 49 percent of Americans believe that Congress and the Biden administration need to do more diplomatically to help end the war.

In the end, the parties to conflict hold much of the power. They can stop fighting or stay engaged on the battlefield to achieve their individual objectives. But outside nations matter both diplomatically and militarily. At this moment, what an international body such as the United Nations says and does can influence outcomes.

Let’s hope there is a strong chorus warning Russia to back off and that Putin heeds the call. If not, we are in for even more dangerous times ahead.

This piece is republished from The Hill.