State collapse in Ethiopia cannot be ruled out. It could take one of several different forms. It may happen soon.
Following the military collapse of the Ethiopian National Defense Force, it is essential for Ethiopians and international partners to assess what state collapse might mean. There is the short-term prospect of a state crisis, […]Continue Reading →
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed inherited a state. He sacrificed it to the dream of an empire. On his current trajectory, Abiy’s political obituary will be that he left Ethiopians with neither state nor empire.Continue Reading →
There’s a chance to de-escalate the war in Ethiopia and begin negotiations towards peace. The opportunity is slender but worth taking. It starts with calming the rhetoric.
The alternative is that the public rhetoric escalates and the next phase of the war—in Western Tigray and Tselemti, areas claimed and currently occupied by Amhara regional state—becomes […]Continue Reading →
There’s a new reality in Ethiopia: the Tigray Defense Force has defeated the Ethiopian National Defense Force.
In a series of battles over the last two weeks, the TDF has broken the back of the ENDF and taken control of most of Tigray. The armed forces do not possess the leadership, capacity, resources, or time […]Continue Reading →
In the aftermath of the military defeats suffered by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) in Tigray there is an immediate high risk of reprisals against civilians.
Last week the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) took the strategic offensive for the first time and destroyed an ENDF force of approximately 15,000 men and captured significant amounts […]Continue Reading →
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