Today, Ethiopia is a land marked by the starkest contrast: feast and famine.
In Addis Ababa, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is holding a lavish celebration to inaugurate his new government, on a scale not seen since the coronation of Emperor Haile Selassie almost one hundred years ago. There are vast crowds, parades, state banquets, and […]Continue Reading →
The United Nations and almost every single foreign government concerned with Ethiopia has called for a ceasefire. But what does this actually mean? What is a ceasefire and how can it be secured?
This blog post explores some of the complexities of a ceasefire agreement (CFA). Ceasefire has no specific meaning in law, but […]Continue Reading →
State collapse in Ethiopia cannot be ruled out. It could take one of several different forms. It may happen soon.
Following the military collapse of the Ethiopian National Defense Force, it is essential for Ethiopians and international partners to assess what state collapse might mean. There is the short-term prospect of a state crisis, […]Continue Reading →
There’s a chance to de-escalate the war in Ethiopia and begin negotiations towards peace. The opportunity is slender but worth taking. It starts with calming the rhetoric.
The alternative is that the public rhetoric escalates and the next phase of the war—in Western Tigray and Tselemti, areas claimed and currently occupied by Amhara regional state—becomes […]Continue Reading →
There’s a new reality in Ethiopia: the Tigray Defense Force has defeated the Ethiopian National Defense Force.
In a series of battles over the last two weeks, the TDF has broken the back of the ENDF and taken control of most of Tigray. The armed forces do not possess the leadership, capacity, resources, or time […]Continue Reading →
By Jan Nyssen and several colleagues that co-authored but preferred to remain anonymous.
In a speech to assembled Ethiopian ambassadors in January 2019, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed would make a prescient remark regarding Tigray. Alluding to the role of soldiers during the battle of Adua in 1896 and later, during the Eritrean war, Abiy […]Continue Reading →
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