Mass Atrocity Endings Research

The WPF program on mass atrocities, defined as widespread and systematic violence against civilians, began in Fall 2011 and primarily focused on studying patterns of endings.In this program, ‘endings’ includes analysis of patterns of de-escalation of direct, lethal violence and other forms of harming civilians, and the study of recurrence in the context of global trends. The focus was determined by two interests: first, the impact of organized violence on civilian populations, and second, concern that conventional narratives of ending atrocities through military intervention were inadvertently lowering the bar for military intervention by adding a human rights based argument to buttress militarism. 

The existing conventional meta-narrative for genocide and mass atrocity against civilians is empirically and analytically strong on the origins and nature of such extreme violence, but takes a strictly normative turn when considering the endings of genocide or mass atrocity. The ‘ideal’ ending, which tends to preoccupy advocates and policymakers, consists of an international military intervention leading to a settlement that includes not only an end to genocide but also the establishment of peace and democracy along with an exercise in transitional justice that may include trials, assistance to the survivors, memorialization, compensation and reparation. What debates do exist generally focus on the legality and politics of international interventions to halt genocide and measures to bring perpetrators to justice. This projects explored the oft-neglected empirical study of how genocides and mass atrocities have actually terminated. The program concluded in 2017.

Links:

Key Findings |Outputs |Related Projects

Key findings:

    • Endings fall into one of three typologies: as planned, defeat (primarily by domestic forces), or moderation within the perpetrator regime. Since the mid-1980s, increasingly endings occur by moderation, whereas previously regimes pursued killing as planned.
    • Mass atrocities primarily end through a political logic, determined by national political agendas, not international policy or interventions—although these can and do have an impact on the dynamics of ending.
    • In the post Cold War era, atrocity endings are more varied than previous periods. This is due to a wider array of influences impacting patterns of violence, such that endings are dependent on the convergence of multiple interests towards de-escalation of mass violence.
    • Windows of opportunity to de-escalate violence can only be consolidated and maintained in places where a state has sufficient capacity (Iraq provides a counter-example).
    • Ending atrocities is not synonymous and can be at odds with advancing democracy.

Outputs:

How Mass Atrocities End: Studies from Guatemala, Burundi, Indonesia, Sudan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Iraq (Cambridge University Press, 2016), ed. Bridget Conley-Zilkic. Additional outputs from WPF-sponsored case study research include:

  • Claire Q. Smith and Tom Jarvis, “Ending Mass Atrocities: An Empirical Reinterpretation of ‘Successful’ International Military Intervention in East Timor” (Journal of International Peacekeeping, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13533312.2017.1322906
  • Roddy Brett,The Origins and Dynamics of Genocide: political violence in Guatemala. Palgrave Macmillan. 2016.
  • Fanar Haddad, ‘Competing Victimhoods in a Sectarian Landscape,’ Jadaliyya, Nov 1, 2016; ‘”Shia Forces”; “Iraqi Army” and the Perils of Sect-Coding,’ Jadaliyya, Sept 8, 2016; ‘Shi’a-Centric State-Building and Sunni Rejection in Post-2003 Iraq,’ Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jan 2016.

Op-eds, Occasional Papers and Policy Briefings:

Multimedia

Related Projects:

  • Remembering the Ones We Lost: Support for South Sudanese efforts to document the names of people who died in conflicts since 1955. The project, Remembering the Ones We Lost is spearheaded by an independent group of South Sudanese civil society actors, and WPF issued them a grant to create a website that also serves as their informational infrastructure.
  • The Memory of Genocide and its Consequences in Cyangugu (Rwanda): It is estimated that more than a million people were killed between 6 April and 17 July 1994, in the genocide was committed against the Tutsi in Rwanda, including Hutu and others opposed to this mass crime. The memory of the genocide Rwanda is challenged because of its political use by both the Rwandan authorities and by political opponents, including in the diaspora. World Peace Foundation is supporting the ongoing project, The Memory of Genocide and its Consequences in Cyangugu undertaken by RwaBaho Platform, The Center for Interdisciplinary Research: Democracy, Institutions, Subjectivity (CRIDIS), at the Catholic University of Louvain Belgium, as they aims to create and implement an online archive of testimonies of the 1994 genocide against Tutsis in Rwanda and its consequences in Cyangugu.  There is an ongoing need to preserve memory and promote a deeper understanding of the genocide that occurred in Rwanda in 1994 as part of efforts to promote a culture of peace and human rights in Rwanda and among its diaspora. Once completed, this project will contribute to knowledge and understanding with a detailed record of the atrocities in Cyangugu, and evidence of the consequences for the local community.