blog

By Xiaodon Liang

Under the direction of Prof. Monica Toft and research lead Dr. Sidita Kushi, the Center for Strategic Studies’ first major research program, The Intervention Project (TIP), has entered its first phase. Last Thursday, Kushi gave a presentation to CSS staff and fellows of the research so far, which has entailed assessing the existing literature on U.S. interventions and constructing a working definition of the phenomenon.

We welcomed Fletcher students back for the academic year at an open house on September 17. The event introduced new and returning graduate students to the center’s recent work and our agenda for the coming year.

CSS Director Monica Toft kicked off the event by thanking the 40 students, representing all of The Fletcher School’s resident degrees and Tufts University’s undergraduate program, for attending the afternoon session. She presented her newest work on migration and demographics, a volume co-edited with Isabelle Côté and Matthew I. Mitchell entitled People Changing Places: New Perspectives on Demography, Migration, Conflict, and the State. Demographic change is a subtle and underappreciated factor driving conflict and tensions in all parts of the world, and she encouraged students to pay more attention to the long-neglected field. Demographics are critical for understanding power between and within states, shifting balances, and political violence and war. She noted that demographers were studying the effects of immigration on political stability many years before they hit the front pages of newspapers in Europe and the United States.

by Monica Duffy Toft

Dear Colleagues, Students, and Friends of CSS,

It’s hard to believe that the start of the academic year is already upon us: students are back, books have been ordered, syllabi have been distributed, and fellows have arrived. The Center for Strategic Studies (CSS) begins its second year with excitement and enthusiasm as we continue our mission to train the next generation of scholars and practitioners in strategy and national security policy.

Three new postdoctoral fellows—Nils Hagerdal (PhD Harvard), Sidita Kushi (PhD Northeastern), and Megan McBride (PhD Brown)—have joined CSS, while others—Rita Konaev, Burak Kadercan, and Sarah Detzner—have left to begin another phase of their careers. Professor Thomas Cavanna will continue teaching at Fletcher on US foreign policy and researching his book on US-China relations, and postdoctoral fellow Karim Elkady will continue his research on critical cases of US state-building interventions. Our postdoctoral fellows are joined by eight PhD fellows, some of whom are returning—Polina Beliakova, Zoltan Feher, Meg Guliford, David Kampf, and Xiaodon Liang—while others are new to CSS—Neha Ansari, Lydia Sizer, and Colin Steele. In addition to working on their dissertations, the fellows will be helping me and program manager Anna Ronell to advance the research and activities of the center.

by Karim Elkady

Without U.S. political engagement with Iraq’s domestic politics, the military and security gains that Iraq, the United States, and their international partners in Operation Inherent Resolve have achieved will diminish. During a press briefing in Baghdad on July 24, 2018, Brigadier General Frederic Parisot, the director of Civil-Military Operations for Operation Inherent Resolve responded to a question about post-ISIS stabilization in Iraq and Syria. He said “we – the Coalition – (will) fail to defeat Daesh if stabilization is not successful.” Instead of waging another war against Iran, the United States should finish the job in Iraq. More than fifteen years ago, the United States invaded Iraq, changed its regime and occupied it with the purpose of transforming it into a stable democratic state; yet up to this day Iraq suffers from political instability and turmoil.

by David Kampf

Submitting to fears of asylum seekers besieging the country, the United States is restricting entry and pulling back from international solutions to the global refugee crisis. But this hands-off—and walled-off—approach diminishes Washington’s ability to manage the issue and safeguard the country. Like it or not, the global refugee crisis will not disappear anytime soon and it will continue to pose strategic threats.

It is delusional to think other countries will solve the problem of mass human displacement for the United States and a mistake to let America’s refugee policy get bogged down in partisan infighting over broader immigration policy. To defend U.S. national security and protect refugees, the Trump administration should increase the number of refugees it resettles in the United States, lead a multinational effort to modernize the international humanitarian regime, and increase long-term funding for refugees around the world.

Perspectives on China’s Rise

Thomas Cavanna Reviews

Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017)
Richard McGregor, Asia’s Reckoning: China, Japan, and the Fate of U.S. Power in the Pacific Century (Viking, 2017)

By Margarita Konaev

Urbanization is a relentless trend, and as cities grow and expand, armed conflict and violence are urbanizing as well. In recent years, cities like Aleppo, Sana’a, and Mosul have been largely destroyed in wars that involve conventional state forces fighting different insurgents and terrorist groups, armed groups battling each other, and third parties providing support to both state and non-state actors. Terrorist groups and ‘lone wolf attackers’ sponsored or inspired by the Islamic State have orchestrated sophisticated and deadly bombings, shootings, vehicular and suicide terrorism attacks on major cities across Europe and Africa. And even traditionally rural insurgent groups such as the Taliban and the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) are increasingly targeting cities, with devastating consequences for civilians.

In January 2018, Mariya Ilyas F’18, a Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy alumna from The Fletcher School, participated in the 19th Beirut Exchange Program. Organized by the news website Mideast Wire, the Exchange is an enrichment program consisting of conferences centered in different cities around the Middle East. Mariya availed this opportunity with funding from the Center for Strategic Studies, the Fares Center, the Academic Dean’s Office, and the Tufts Provost’s Office.

By Anna P. Ronell

Because U.S.-Russian relations may be at an all-time low since the end of the Cold War, it is especially important now to continue dialogue between the two countries through all available channels. To quote Fletcher professor Daniel Drezner, “Last fall, the common consensus was that the state of the bilateral relationship was at its lowest point since the Cold War. That was before the Trump administration ratcheted up diplomatic and economic sanctions, pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and slapped new tariffs on Russian steel. It’s safe to say that things have gotten worse.” More than ever before, keeping channels of communication open should be a priority for the Fletcher community.

By Thomas Cavanna

The United States’ response to a rising China has largely focused on bolstering military capabilities, doctrines, and partnerships in the Asia-Pacific (or, more recently, the Indo-Pacific). This approach misconstrues the problem: it overstates the security threat and understates (or ignores) the economic challenge. To maintain its dominant position globally in the long-term, the United States must reckon with the ambitious geoeconomic endeavor Beijing has launched to project strategic influence across the Eurasian continent, which hosts most of the world’s economic centers and natural resources.

The nascent Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) illustrates the transformative geopolitical implications of China’s rise. Despite its changing contours and the fact that it partly recycles preexisting plans, this series of major infrastructure and development projects designed to connect Eurasian regions together is a coherent enterprise of unprecedented scale: $4 trillion of promised investments in 65 countries representing 70 percent of the world’s population, 55 percent of its GNP, and 75 percent of its energy reserves. The BRI aims to stabilize China’s western peripheries, rekindle its economy, propel non-Western international economic institutions, gain influence in other countries, and diversify trade suppliers/routes while circumventing the U.S. pivot to Asia.