THE CENTRAL AMERICAN CONUNDRUM: TOWARD A NEW REGIONAL SECURITY AND ECONOMIC ORDER
By Aroop Mukharji
Originally published in War on the Rocks
Why has U.S. foreign policy toward Central America failed, and failed badly?
For over a hundred years, the United States has struggled to find a policy toward Central America that improves its economic prosperity and security. The region’s challenges today are many: weak and failed states, drug and human trafficking cartels, and an exploding migration and humanitarian crisis. At a time when the U.S. military is deployed across the globe to promote U.S. interests, it is grossly ironic that Central America remains one of the most dangerous places on the planet. And the spillover effects are striking. Over 14,000 Americans died from cocaine overdoses in 2018, more than double the number of U.S. servicemembers killed in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. 90 percent of cocaine imported into the United States flows through Central America.
Instability in the “Northern Triangle” (Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador) presents the most acute security challenges to the United States in the region. Gang violence and trafficking are endemic and the regional economy is not working for its citizens, leading to high homicide rates, high levels of migration, and poverty. What is worse is that the current free-trade relationship between the United States and Northern Triangle countries exacerbates the very problem it hopes to fix by disrupting already small industries and creating trade imbalances with countries that cannot afford to have them yet. In response, the United States should support a regional peacekeeping force under the auspices of the Organization of American States and renegotiate the current free-trade agreement with the Northern Triangle.