Iran’s Strategic Calculations on the Middle East Wars

On October 23, 2024, Professor Nadim Rouhana introduced Dr. Banafsheh Keynoush and outlined the session’s focus on Iran’s strategies in the ongoing Middle East conflicts, with attention to Iran’s alliances, wartime strategy, and broader geopolitical calculations.

Iran’s Strategic Approach in the Middle East Conflicts

Dr. Keynoush began by examining Iran’s comprehensive approach to the conflicts in the Middle East, highlighting its multi-flank strategy, which aims to exert influence through alliances with groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. She explained that this approach is designed to encircle Israel and challenge its regional dominance, thereby advancing Iran’s influence without direct confrontation. This strategy aligns with Iran’s broader ideological vision of a unified Islamic Ummah. Dr. Keynoush discussed recent shifts in Iran’s nuclear posture, indicating that Iran may be moving toward a more assertive weapons program. She noted that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s statements imply a capability that serves as a deterrent, reinforcing Iran’s stance against perceived threats from Israel. The nuclear doctrine, she explained, is part of Iran’s strategy to strengthen its defensive position while avoiding direct, large-scale conflict.

Ceasefire Conditions and Humanitarian Assistance

Dr. Keynoush argued that Iran seeks temporary solutions that could alleviate some of the region’s tensions. She highlighted Iran’s support for a ceasefire in Gaza, followed by humanitarian aid, as essential steps in addressing the immediate crisis. Iran’s approach calls for negotiations that engage not only Israel but also Iran’s allies and members of the Axis of Resistance, underscoring Iran’s belief in a comprehensive regional solution. According to Dr. Keynoush, Iran’s view is that sustainable peace will require addressing the interconnections among the various Middle Eastern conflicts. In discussing Iran’s vision for Gaza, Dr. Keynoush outlined steps Iran believes necessary, including establishing a council elected by Gaza’s residents to foster integrated governance between Gaza and the West Bank. This governance model would require Israel’s withdrawal from certain territories, aligning with UN Resolution 1701’s call for specific territorial concessions in Lebanon.

The Abraham Accords and Iran’s Security Concerns

Dr. Keynoush explained Iran’s perception of the Abraham Accords as a significant threat, viewing them as a means of encircling Iran with hostile forces through Israeli alliances with Gulf states like the UAE and Bahrain. She noted that Iran’s view is that these accords are destabilizing, as they bring Israeli influence closer to Iran’s borders. This encirclement strategy heightens Iran’s security concerns, which Iran seeks to counterbalance through its own regional alliances and strategic military positioning.

Diplomatic Strategies and Engagement with the United Nations

Dr. Keynoush elaborated on Iran’s diplomatic approach, noting that while Iran remains ideologically opposed to direct engagement with the U.S., it leverages international forums when beneficial to its strategic interests. For instance, Iran supports the concept of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East and emphasizes the need for humanitarian assistance in Gaza as ways to align with international norms while advancing its agenda.

Audience Q&A Highlights

During the Q&A, Dr. Keynoush responded to questions on several critical topics:

• Iran’s Vision for Regional Stability: Dr. Keynoush explained that Iran is not pursuing an outright military overthrow of Israel but rather seeks conditions between war and peace to maintain its ideological and strategic influence.
• U.S. Relations and Future Negotiations: When asked about Iran’s view of its relationship with the U.S., Dr. Keynoush reiterated Iran’s skepticism toward U.S. negotiations, especially following the withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
• UN Involvement and Potential Outcomes: Dr. Keynoush discussed the role of the United Nations and other international bodies, suggesting that Iran is open to UN involvement in humanitarian aid efforts but remains cautious of measures that could undermine its sovereignty.

Dr. Keynoush concluded by emphasizing that Iran’s strategies are guided by a combination of ideological commitments and pragmatic calculations. Iran’s goals in the region, she noted, reflect a desire to maintain influence and regional stability on its terms, highlighting the importance of understanding Iran’s nuanced approach to conflict and diplomacy in the Middle East.