American Foreign Policy in the Middle East: From the Biden to Trump Administration
On February 12, 2025, the Fares Center hosted Shadi Hamid, columnist at The Washington Post and a research professor of Islamic Studies at Fuller Seminary, for a lecture on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Dr. Hamid examined the continuities and shifts across various administrations.
Dr. Hamid’s main thesis was that American policy in the region has been operating under a “stability first” paradigm, prioritizing support for authoritarian regimes under the assumption that they promote stability whereas democracy and free elections are viewed as destabilizing forces. Dr. Hamid traced the evolution of this paradigm from the Obama administration to the present day and discussed the similarities and differences between the Biden and Trump administrations’ approaches to the region. He also explored the often unspoken biases which underpin this “stability first” paradigm, describing a quiet, bipartisan disdain for Arab political agency.
In discussing the Biden administration, Dr. Hamid highlighted the return of numerous Obama-era policymakers, many of whom were staunch supporters of the “stability first” paradigm. Though there was a small focus placed on democracy during Biden’s term, Dr. Hamid noted that his administration was much more concerned with strengthening existing alliances in the region. Meanwhile, Dr. Hamid suggested that the Trump administration may disrupt the entrenched “stability first” paradigm. However, he also pointed out that Trump’s unpredictable nature and transparent disregard for democracy and human rights in the region make his policies even more dangerous.
Ultimately, Dr. Hamid concluded that America’s “stability first” approach has failed, claiming that stability under authoritarianism is an illusion, as exemplified by the cases of Syria and Tunisia. He argued that American policymakers must begin to question, not continue to replicate, the assumptions supporting the “stability first” paradigm. Only then, he asserted, will the U.S. begin to play a more principled, and less destructive, role in the Middle East.