Europe’s Energy Policy Failures Fuel Election Shocks

By Ariel Cohen, Fletcher School alumnus, and Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council

Europe has been rocked by a series of decisive elections in the past months. In Germany, the populist-right Alternative for Germany, known as the AfD, won Thuringia’s state election, marking the first victory of a nationalist party in a German state election since 1945. This follows the party’s political gains earlier this year when the ruling coalition of the Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats suffered a significant defeat in the EU parliament elections at the hands of the AfD, which got the second-highest share of the votes, upending the ruling Social Democrats.

In France, the New Popular Front, a broad left-wing coalition, eked out a narrow victory against Macron’s centrists and the populist-right National Front after the right’s massive gains in the EU parliamentary elections. In the UK, Labour sailed to victory, the Netherlands now has a populist-right coalition government, and the list goes on.

These decisive elections have few commonalities. Some incumbents endured, others faltered, the economic problems varied, and the ideological choices were diverse. However, there was at least one common trend: energy policy.

The deleterious impacts of German energy policy on the economy have created dissatisfaction with the political status quo. Germany’s distaste for nuclear power led it into an energy fiasco, as its overreliance on Gazprom’s imported piped natural gas came to a head during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Berlin decided to give up the aggressor’s fuel (except for LNG).

In contrast to the ruling coalition, the AfD advocated for reinstating nuclear power, ending the green transition, and ending economic sanctions against Russia to obtain natural gas. These proposals resonated with parts of a beleaguered public dealing with soaring inflation and high energy prices.

The AfD’s vote share came primarily from former East Germany and younger voters, a trend that has been present since the late 2010s. Lagging behind the more developed Western provinces economically since the 1990 reunification, voters in the Eastern provinces now face higher inflation than their Western compatriots. This incentivizes them to vote for energy policy change whenever possible. Whether that means ending sanctions against Russia or embracing nuclear, the AfD wants cheap energy.

Even more concerning for Germany, the AfD has connections to far right and ultranationalist groups. In addition, many in the party have sympathy for or even ties to the Russian government. If parties such as the AfD can either directly block aid or indirectly affect policy towards the Russo-Ukraine war, Ukraine’s odds for a favorable conflict outcome will decrease, and the likelihood that Russia will return to supply more piped gas in Europe will climb higher.

In France, the surprise victory of the New Popular Front comes in the context of changing attitudes towards the country’s net zero emissions policy. The far-right National Rally ran on a platform opposing net zero. Jordan Bardella, the youthful leader of National Rally and close associate of party boss Marine Le Pen, has discussed plans to expand nuclear power by lowering production taxes for the industry. On the flip side, the New Popular Front, which won a plurality of seats in the election, is pro-renewables, anti-fossil fuels, while the discussion of nuclear energy is kept to a minimum in its manifesto due to differences of opinion on nuclear among the various left-leaning parties in the bloc.

The UK saw the Labour Party sweep to power on widespread dissatisfaction over the country’s direction. The Conservatives, who have been in power since 2010, had overseen an energy crisisleading to one of the highest energy costs in the world. This is in combination with a cost-of-living crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Labour’s cornerstone energy policy is a supersized, state-owned clean energy project firm. A more state-oriented version of America’s Inflation Reduction Act is envisioned, which seeks to use the energy transition to create jobs. This does not bode well for cheap energy in the U.K.

Labour was not the only winner in the election. Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist party, won 14% of the vote and five parliamentary seats. While the party mainly ran on an anti-immigrant platform, it also opposed many of the UK’s environmental and energy policies, promising that scrapping net zero policies would lower energy prices. Should Labour’s goal of reaching net zero impose significant costs on voters, Reform may have the opportunity to capitalize and gain ground by trumpeting the reduction of energy prices.

While Europe was able to stabilize its energy prices and stave off energy claims of the populist right parties, it was through LNG from the U.S., not renewables. However, LNG imports might not be a permanent solution. In the U.S., the Biden Administration’s ban on LNG exports, though overturned by the courts, leaves questions about the reliability of the American gas supply as Europe still tries to break free from dependence on Russian natural gas; and these doubts are already showing their effects. Russia overtook the US as a gas supplier to Europe this May after losing its lead in 2022. Perhaps this is one reason Germany blocked sanctions on Russian gas earlier this June.

The ruling parties of Europe need to swiftly deal with the cost-of-living crisis fueled by poor energy policy. Net zero should remain a long-term, aspirational goal for these governments, but pursuing it too rapidly will burden those least prepared to manage the costs. A pragmatic energy policy emphasizing cheap energy through nuclear and natural gas while continuing the green transition at an economically sustainable pace will ensure political stability and badly needed economic growth and prosperity.

(This post is republished from Forbes.)