Will Foreign Policy Matter in the 2024 U.S. Elections?

By Daniel Drezner, Professor of International Politics at The Fletcher School

ABSTRACT

In recent decades, foreign policy has played a minor role in U.S. presidential elections, especially compared to more trenchant issues like the economy. Will 2024 be any different? The closeness of the race means any little factor could play a role—but it remains highly unlikely. Polling continues to show that the public does not place a high priority on foreign policy. Even high salience issues, like the war in Gaza, motivate fewer voters than is commonly believed. The most likely effect is a modest hit to Kamala Harris’ support, as the incumbent party will shoulder the blame for perceptions that the world is falling apart. The scale of these effects will nevertheless be minor.

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(This post is republished from The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Volume 48:2 – Summer 2024.)