Kazakhstan Referendum Will Reshape Nuclear Energy In Central Asia
By Ariel Cohen, Fletcher School alum, and Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council
Kazakhstan has employed the time-honored practice of obtaining societal feedback by holding a referendum on October 6th, 2024, to determine whether it should begin constructing a nuclear power plant. With 64% of registered voters in the country submitting ballots, the referendum passed. 71.12% of voters voted in favor of building the plant, according to the Central Referendum Commission. At a time when several countries are giving nuclear a second look as part of the move toward lowering carbon emissions for energy production, this expression of popular opinion impacts the national energy supply and hydrocarbon export capacity at an important juncture in Kazakhstan’s modernization. It is also an example of the region’s popular engagement in major public policy questions.
The public perception of nuclear power in Kazakhstan has been marred by its history with the Soviet nuclear program. Formerly the location of the USSR’s atomic weapon test grounds and poorly protected nuclear waste sites, Kazakhstan quickly and enthusiastically relinquished all things nuclear – including the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal when the Soviet Union dissolved. Even today, nuclear power remains divisive. Twenty public hearings were held by the government in the run-up to the referendum, with emotions running high.
Kazakhstan is the world’s largest supplier of uranium, which puts it in a position to greatly benefit from introducing a nuclear power plant, moving the nuclear energy cycle up the supply chain, and eliminating the need to import natural gas. Currently, the country’s population growth and industrial expansion are causing electricity deficits and forcing it to buy electricity from neighboring countries, a trend projected to worsen. As the world’s largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan has the domestic supply to fuel a nuclear power station, offsetting a significant portion of the power deficit while diversifying its energy mix with zero carbon emissions generation.
As the country pursues the construction of a nuclear power plant, Kazakhstan must address several concerns, ranging from allaying public fears to navigating geopolitical headwinds, which can get rough. Soliciting the people’s opinion aligns with the aspirations of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who advanced the concept of the “listening state” that addresses the concerns of its citizens.
Now that it has the popular approval to build a nuclear power plant, Kazakhstan must partner with international actors to construct a safe and modern reactor. Russia, China, and South Korea are among the most likely partners, with Western powers like France also placing their own bids.
Russia’s development of nuclear power in the region would draw upon the multi-decade experience of the state nuclear energy company, Rosatom, in building reactors abroad. Recently, Russia inked a deal with Uzbekistan to build Central Asia’s first nuclear power plant. According to the Kremlin, Rosatom will build up to six nuclear reactors with a capacity of 55 megawatts, a smaller undertaking than the 2.4 gigawatts one agreed in 2018.
Kazakhstan and Russia cooperate across strategic and economic lines. They are members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasia Economic Union, the Common Security Treaty Organization, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Rosatom has an existing relationship with Kazatomprom, which draws it into Russia’s nuclear energy orbit. An agreement with Rosatom would be understandable but could well raise eyebrows in the West, as the U.S. prohibited Russian uranium imports in August.
China, another strategic competitor to the West, is in the process of building enough nuclear energy capacity to surpass the U.S. and France by 2030. It has already entered a relationship with Kazatomprom to fuel this endeavor as a supplier of uranium ore and fuel assemblies. This has allowed the uranium industry in Kazakhstan to modernize further and increase its output. Chinese officials have expressed a desire for the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) to build reactors in Kazakhstan under a build-operate-transfer (BOT) scheme.
Though Rosatom has demonstrated experience building reactors in other nations and is making a push to generate nuclear power in Central Asian nations, Chinese reactors have technological advantages. Notably, China has started to develop molten salt reactors (MSRs), which use molten salt rather than water to cool the reactor, an increasingly scarce resource in several Central Asian states. MSRs also produce less highly radioactive waste and can adapt to uranium-plutonium and thorium-uranium fuel cycles. China also plans to build dozens more nuclear reactors by 2030 with 13 under construction overseas, meaning early cooperation with China could get Kazakhstan in on the ground floor of a nascent supply chain with a powerful neighbor.
South Korea can provide Kazakhstan with some of the most advanced reactor technology in the industry. Astana may be interested in the Korean APR1400 reactors rather than other models with lower output. Korean Hydro and Nuclear Power (KNHP) has had a relationship with Kazakhstan since 2019, and the two parties signed a memorandum of understanding in 2022 to cooperate in exploring nuclear technology.
In the spirit of a multi-vector policy, President Tokayev admits that the decision is not simple. “…my personal vision of this issue is that an international consortium should work in Kazakhstan, which will consist of global companies with the most advanced technologies. But then, as they say, life will tell.”
The geopolitical tightrope Kazakhstan must walk isn’t new or surprising for the Central Asian nation – but it is vital. Kazakhstan engages in a continuous balancing act that involves assuring strategic partners and investors even as it selects one or the other for key development projects. This balancing act continues domestically as well, as questions remain among the population even though the referendum has passed. According to a poll conducted prior to the referendum asking Kazakh citizens about concerns they have regarding the project – 49.5% worried about the potential impact on public health, 42.9% looked at possible negative effects on the environment, 22.8% were concerned about the adequacy of emergency preparedness; 18.6% had questions about radioactive waste disposal, and 15.3% had questions about regional benefits that might be associated with the project.
The pursuit of nuclear power demonstrates the development of Kazakhstan both globally and domestically. By seeking to construct a nuclear plant, Astana is moving up the value chain in the nuclear sector, addressing the country’s economic and energy needs, and contributing to the green transition by adding environmentally friendly capacity. The referendum allowed the government to implement its “listening state” policy. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan’s multi-vector geopolitical challenges mean it must balance the concerns of Beijing, Brussels, Moscow, and Washington. Yet even the soundest environmental and energy policy could backfire without this balancing act. With the approval of Kazakhstan’s people and several actors vying for a part in building a reactor, the production of nuclear energy is a key milestone in Central Asia’s route to further modernization.
(This post is republished from Forbes.)