A Student Perspective on the Warsaw Security Forum 2023

By Sarah Baughn, MALD 2024 Candidate, The Fletcher School

Thanks to assistance from the Fletcher Russia and Eurasia Program, I was honored to attend the Warsaw Security Forum (WSF) 2023, which took place on October 3 and 4 in Warsaw, Poland. The WSF examines security issues in Central and Eastern Europe through the lens of transatlantic cooperation. One of the leading security conferences in Europe, the WSF features over 200 high-level experts and policymakers. Reflecting on my experience, several broad themes emerged throughout my time at the event.

The primary theme I noticed was a collective increased desire for Europe to band together to combat the threat of Russia, mainly due to the threat many feel to their own borders and statehood from Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Relatedly, many panel discussions were dedicated to increasing the military readiness of NATO members, including “Europe at War: Beefing Up of NATO’s Collective Defense,” “Prepared Allied Defense Industry for War of Attrition,” “NATO as the Security Guarantor of CEE: What is Next for the Alliance,” and many more. Overall, there was a strong, openly expressed goal of working together to increase NATO’s, and more specifically European, strength, particularly regarding the new membership of Sweden and Finland into NATO.

Second, panelists emphasized that Central Eastern Europe was becoming the newly emergent center of gravity of Europe in terms of security concerns. The annual report for the conference was aptly titled, “Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a New Center of Gravity: Recommendation on Strengthening Regional, European, and Transatlantic Security.” This shift is taking place due to Central Eastern Europe’s geographic closeness to Russia, Turkey, and other parts of a world increasingly looking eastward. Poland, in particular, now hosts many international discussions of current affairs because of the Russia-Ukraine war taking place on Poland’s border and the country’s relationship with China. The view of this shift was repeated by many throughout the WSF, including Thomas Bagger, Director-General for Foreign Affairs at the Office of the President of the Federal Republic of Germany; Jacek Siewiera, the Secretary of State and the Head of the National Security Bureau in Poland; and Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation in India. 

Third, experts spoke about the increasing deterioration in the relationship between Russia and the rest of Europe. At the time, there was no hint of war fatigue, or even a discussion of building bridges that did not include Russia’s eventual defeat. Since then, war fatigue has unquestionably set in, but the proposition of establishing peace with Russia under current conditions remains an unpopular one. The discussions filled me with an increasing certainty that Russia and the West would remain at odds until the Russia-Ukraine war ends in a way that maintains Ukrainian sovereignty. Though several panel discussions tried to conceptualize an end to the conflict, including what a post-Putin Russia could look like, the answer remained far beyond the grasp of many of the participants.

A night owl conversation about a post-war future with Russia that included members of the Russian opposition went until almost midnight on the first day, far beyond its planned time, because of how intense the discussion became. The Russian opposition representatives at the conference could not agree with one another on how Russia could change or should engage with the world and devolved into heated arguments. From the perspective of the West, the future of Russia in international affairs remains uncertain, but overall there is a sense of hopelessness that there could be any constructive relationship without a regime change in Russia.

Fourthly, I recognized the strength of Ukrainian organizing. Ukraine has demonstrated strength and leadership in many of its responses to the invasion of its sovereign territory, something many speakers highlighted. That stood out most prominently in several panel discussions on Ukrainian legal action and reconstruction. Ukrainians have documented the war crimes committed at a speed, quantity, and definition never previously seen. This has led to the historic speed of the ICC arrest warrant issued against Russian President Vladimir Putin and Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova, among other open investigations that have paid off with arrest warrants against Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash and Victor Nikolayevich Sokolov. Ukraine has also sought to charge Russia with the crime of aggression through all possible methods; the long-term impacts on international law remain to be seen.

Fifth, many speakers expressed extreme concern about U.S. domestic politics. The main questions people asked me at the WSF were about my predictions for the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, which I could not have possibly predicted with any accuracy in October 2023. The extreme concern over another potential Trump presidency remained an interesting undercurrent throughout the conference; it was also the specific focus of a conversation titled the “Impact of 2024 US Presidential on Transatlantic Security”. The continuation of U.S. aid to Ukraine was a major concern, which proved accurate in light of the political divisiveness of aid for Ukraine that became evident in the U.S. immediately following the conference. Given that U.S. funding to Ukraine remained stalled for seven months after the conference, that was a relevant concern to raise.

With a note on Polish domestic politics, the “March of a Million Hearts” took place the day I arrived in Warsaw, and it was quite a spectacle. While the marchers engaged in a protest supporting political change in Poland, many local experts did not believe it could happen, nor did they want to engage with the concept. Many local analysts refused to discuss their opinions on the parliamentary election in Poland that month, even privately, which I found both fascinating and mildly concerning. The Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland ultimately lost power in December 2023 after eight years.

Finally, throughout the conference, I observed an overall concern about building democratic resilience. That felt slightly surreal against the backdrop of the domestic political tensions in Poland, but an entire track was dedicated to the concept of strengthening democracies. With several panel discussions on elections in the digital era, the impact of disinformation, democracy as a value, and many related subjects, it is clear that the resilience of democracy will remain a topic of intense debate across Western countries for many years to come.