To save Ukraine and avoid World War III, invite it into NATO before Trump takes office
By Evelyn Farkas, Fletcher alumna and Executive Director of the McCain Institute
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Donald Trump last week on his electoral victory on X and reminded his American counterpart of his “peace through strength approach,” adding, “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer.”
This is true, but Trump has given no sign of approaching Russia’s imperial aggression the way Ronald Reagan approached the Soviet Union.
For this reason, the period we have entered now — before Inauguration Day on Jan. 20 — is critical. President Biden and the Senate leadership have an opportunity to shield Ukraine from the immediate impact of Trump’s election — emboldening Russia President Vladimir Putin and perhaps setting the parameters for the next Trump administration’s policy towards Ukraine.
The situation in Ukraine is dire. Ukraine’s armed forces lack sufficient personnel, equipment and training. They are innovative and technology is helping, but not enough. The state of their democracy is improving, but they need more human capital, which continues to be eroded by the war. The rule of law must be bolstered, and for that, Zelensky and his government will need encouragement and assistance.
The last time Ukraine took the initiative was when the military seized territory in Russia’s Kursk region in August. Putin made his countermove last month, expanding the war to introduce thousands of North Korean soldiers onto his territory to fight Ukrainians. Although this is not likely to prove decisive — and could even backfire on the Kremlin and Kim Jong Un’s regime — we should not downplay its diplomatic significance. This moves the war in Ukraine into the “global” category, especially if you consider Iran and China’s support for Russia’s war effort.
The next move is likely to come from South Korea in the form of direct weapon supply to Ukraine — although we can’t rule out that they may wait to see what a new Trump administration holds in store.
Washington must now immediately make its own move. President Biden should work now with our NATO allies to urge the alliance to issue a swift invitation to NATO membership, one that can be ratified by the majority of the members rapidly. This also means seeking the help of current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), which should be possible since he’s on the record supporting Ukraine’s entry into the alliance.
NATO enlargement to include Ukraine will entail some risk that Putin will test our resolve, so the existing bilateral assurances that most NATO countries signed with Ukraine this year should be referenced as the diplomatic basis for new NATO troop deployments to Ukraine to deter Russia from any further military action in the period between invitation and ratification. We can start preparing now by deploying a Polish Patriot to help create stronger air defenses and consider taking other action to shoot down Russian drones and missiles over Ukrainian territory, much as we have done for Israel in its current fight with Iran.
It has been increasingly apparent to European allies — even in the West — that they could well come under attack by Russia under certain scenarios, that are not far-fetched. Already last year French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of deploying troops back to Ukraine.
But the sabotage operations executed by Russian agents — attacks on the Paris metro, ammunition depots in the Czech Republic and bases in Germany — have provided a jolt to Europe’s leaders, along with break-ins to Finnish water towers and treatment plants and the attempted assassination of the CEO of Germany’s Rheinmetall, a major provider of munitions for Ukraine’s military, including through four military plants in Ukraine.
Russian agents are also suspected of a plot to place incendiary devises on aircraft bound for the U.S. and Canada — this operation alone, if it had succeeded would have brought us to the brink of war with Russia. German intelligence chiefs now warn that Russia could be in a position to attack NATO “by the end of the decade.”
It remains to be seen if this has been a wakeup call, bringing a realization that Putin tested NATO and in our muted response to these attacks, we have invited further probes. Ultimately, as many of us have written repeatedly, Putin wants to eliminate NATO as a threat to his quest to recreate a Russian empire. Only a strong United States with its allies can stop him from destroying the international order, which rests upon respect for sovereignty of state borders and human rights. Providing no response only invites more frequent and lethal attacks from Russia. And it emboldens China to take similar aggressive action against Taiwan and its other neighbors.
We don’t want war with Russia, so we must act firmly now to punish Russia for these acts. We can start by declassifying more information on these attacks and communicating the reality more broadly to European, American and Asian publics with sanctions — adding more Russian banks to the list, and slapping secondary sanctions on countries providing electronics, machine tools and other precursors and components that are being used to manufacture drones and other weapons in Russia. And we can warn Putin that if he persists in such operations on NATO territory, NATO will implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
Bringing Ukraine quickly into NATO will create territorial depth for NATO allies and we gain a member that has the most experience fighting Russians — and in keeping them off balance. President Biden and senators from both parties owe it to the American people to support an invitation to Ukraine during the lame duck. Without the prospect of a NATO security umbrella, Ukraine will be another kind of duck — a sitting duck in Vladimir Putin’s sights.
(This post is republished from The Hill.)