A New Trump Administration | European Security

By Arik Burakovsky, Associate Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program and the Hitachi Center for Technology and International Affairs

(February 13) Trump’s strategy for the Russia-Ukraine war appears to emphasize direct negotiations alongside economic pressure on Russia, aiming to freeze territorial lines while offering “European and non-European” peacekeepers and reconstruction assistance to Ukraine. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth signaled a U.S. shift from open-ended military support to seeking “an enduring peace,” expressing concerns over economic strain and the need to refocus on defending the homeland and deterring China.

European allies remain wary of rewarding Russian aggression but recognize the unsustainable burden of an attritional war with no end in sight. The prolonged conflict has fueled inflation, energy instability, and political polarization across the continent. While European countries have increased defense spending significantly, they still lack the industrial capacity to sustain Ukraine’s military effort indefinitely without U.S. backing. 

Any diplomatic settlement carries considerable risks. A frozen conflict might leave Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian offensives while fracturing NATO’s unity. To prevent a repeat of failed ceasefires under the Minsk agreements, robust security guarantees and long-term commitments to Ukraine’s defense are essential. Trump’s approach is a high-stakes gamble. If mismanaged, it could embolden Russia, destabilize NATO, and further harm Ukraine. However, if handled scrupulously, a ceasefire could allow Europe to strengthen its defenses and economic resilience while preserving a free Ukraine and avoiding further bloodshed and escalation. As U.S. priorities change, Europe faces a future where it must take greater responsibility for its own security.

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(This post is republished from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.)