The event will consist of two keynote fireside chats, a book talk, and seven panel discussions. Each panel discussion will feature presentations by two or three speakers followed by a moderated conversation. To allow sufficient time for interaction among the participants and Q&A with the audience, the panelists are requested to restrict their initial remarks to no more than 10 minutes. On the agenda, the title of each session is accompanied by a tentative list of questions for discussion.
Thursday, September 26
Cabot 701 & 702, The Fletcher School
| 08.45 – 09.15: Registration and Breakfast |
| 09.15 – 10.15: Opening Keynote Fireside Chat What have we learned about economic warfare over the last three years? What did the West expect economic sanctions and export controls on Russia to accomplish? How have their implementation and enforcement been coordinated among Western countries? What Russian responses and adaptations did the West anticipate early on, and to what extent were these expectations matched by reality? Keynote Speaker: Peter Harrell, Nonresident Scholar, American Statecraft Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Moderator: Daniel Drezner, Distinguished Professor of International Politics, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |
| 10.15 – 11.30: Session 1: Russian Adaptations Why has the Russian economy outperformed so many forecasts over the last three years? What economic policies has Russia adopted, such as capital controls, the nationalization of foreign assets, and trading in Chinese yuan, to evade and mitigate the impact of international financial and trade measures levied by the West? How has Russia circumvented trade restrictions on Western software and IT services? How are sanctions affecting the Eurasian Economic Union? Sergey Aleksashenko, Board Member, Free Russia Foundation Irina Busygina, Visiting Scholar, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University Vladislav Inozemtsev, Director, Centre for Post-Industrial Studies |
| 11.30 – 12.00: Coffee Break |
| 12.00 – 13.15: Session 2: Western Adaptations What has been the economic impact of sanctions on the EU? What did Russia aim to accomplish by cutting off natural gas supply to Europe and food imports from certain Western countries? How have the EU and Ukraine remained resilient in the face of Russia’s countermeasures, including natural gas supply disruptions and blocking the Black Sea? What strategies have been employed to mitigate their impacts? To what extent is the unraveling of economic ties between Russia and the West irreversible? Margarita Balmaceda, Professor of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University Hugo Bromley, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Center for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge |
| 13.15 – 14.15: Lunch |
| 14.15 – 15.30: Session 3: Trading with the Enemy What explains the substantial volumes of ongoing trade between Russia and certain Western countries? Why does Europe continue buying Russian natural gas via the Ukrainian and TurkStream pipeline systems and LNG? How has the Russia-Ukraine war affected the global supply of agricultural products and fertilizers? Why does Russia continue to ship titanium to the West, despite its ability to cut titanium supply and potentially disrupt Western aviation production? Why are many Western technology companies continuing to do business in Russia? Why has there not been a complete economic decoupling of Russia from the West, and what does that imply for future conflicts? Elina Ribakova, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) Mariya Grinberg, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Alena Epifanova, Research Fellow, Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) |
| 15.30 – 16.45: Session 4: Complex Manufacturing Sectors How have Western export controls impacted Russian manufacturing and technology sectors? How might “ghost trades” and parallel imports be helping Russia get ahold of “dual use” goods for defense and intelligence services? How are secondary sanctions being implemented and enforced, and have they been effective in preventing third parties from trading with Russia? Chris Miller, Professor of International History, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University Allen Maggard, Analyst, Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS) Pavel Luzin, Visiting Scholar, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |
| 16.45 – 17.15: Coffee Break |
| 17.15 – 18.15: Book Talk Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict between Russia and the West (2023) by Maximilian Hess, Central Asia Fellow, Eurasia Program, Foreign Policy Research Institute |
| 18.15: Dinner |
Friday, September 27
Cheryl A. Chase Center, The Fletcher School
| 08.45 – 09.15: Registration and Breakfast |
| 09.15 – 10.30: Session 5: International Financial System What has been the impact of international financial measures targeting Russia’s central bank, financial sector, and access to international capital? What are the roles of international financial institutions in the implementation of sanctions? How has Russia’s banking system managed to stay afloat? What are the global ramifications of the West attempting to seize Russia’s foreign exchange and gold reserves? Maria Shagina, Senior Fellow, Diamond-Brown Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy, International Institute for Strategic Studies Edward Fishman, Senior Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University Rachel Ziemba, Founder, Ziemba Insights; Adjunct Senior Fellow, Energy, Economics, & Security Program, Center for New American Security |
| 10.30 – 11.00: Coffee Break |
| 11.00 – 12.15: Session 6: International Energy Markets What lessons can be learned from Russian and Western efforts to impose trade restrictions on natural gas, petroleum, coal, and uranium markets? To what extent have these efforts succeeded, and what new responses and adaptations have they catalyzed? What role are intermediaries playing in Western energy imports from Russia? How are global energy dynamics shifting as a result? Sergey Vakulenko, Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Craig Kennedy, Center Associate, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University Rosella Cappella Zielinski, Associate Professor of Political Science, Boston University |
| 12.15 – 13.15: Lunch |
| 13.15 – 14.30: Session 7: China’s Conclusions How does China interpret economic warfare between Russia and the West? What are the consequences of Russia’s growing economic dependence on China and trading fossil fuels? What role does China play in supporting, mitigating, or circumventing Western sanctions? In what ways have sanctions influenced the trade dynamics and relations of China with the West? How do other non-Western countries perceive and respond to sanctions? Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) |
| 14.30 – 15.30: Closing Keynote Fireside Chat What policy implications should the United States draw from economic warfare surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war? What would it take for sanctions to be lifted? How does the current state of sanctions inform the future use of sanctions, and what are the long-term geopolitical repercussions? What additional sanctions might be imposed by Western countries and Russia? Keynote Speaker: Elizabeth Rosenberg, Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, U.S. Department of the Treasury Moderator: Daniel Drezner, Distinguished Professor of International Politics, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |