September 2024 Conference: Agenda
The event will consist of a keynote fireside chat, a book talk, and seven panel discussions. Each panel discussion will feature presentations by several speakers followed by a moderated conversation. To allow sufficient time for interaction among the participants and Q&A with the audience, the panelists should restrict their initial remarks to seven minutes. On the agenda, the title of each session is accompanied by a tentative list of questions for discussion.
Thursday, September 26
Cabot Intercultural Center, 7th floor
| 08:45 AM – 09:15 AM ET: Registration and Breakfast |
| 09:15 AM – 10:15 AM ET: Keynote Fireside Chat What have we learned about economic warfare over the last three years? What did the West expect economic sanctions and export controls on Russia to accomplish? How have their implementation and enforcement been coordinated among Western countries? What Russian responses and adaptations did the West anticipate early on, and to what extent were these expectations matched by reality? What has Russia’s ability to adapt to the sanctions taught us? Are we seeing Russia, China, and other countries succeeding in building an architecture for non-Western trade and finance, and if we are, what are the implications? Keynote Speaker: Peter Harrell, Nonresident Scholar, American Statecraft Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Moderator: Daniel Drezner, Distinguished Professor of International Politics, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |
| 10:15 AM – 11:30 AM ET: Session 1: Russian Adaptations Why has the Russian economy outperformed so many forecasts over the last three years? What economic policies has Russia adopted, such as capital controls, the nationalization of foreign assets, and trading in Chinese yuan, to evade and mitigate the impact of international financial and trade measures levied by the West? How has Russia circumvented trade restrictions on Western software and IT services? How are sanctions affecting Belarus and the Eurasian Economic Union? How long can Russia endure the economic effects of sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine, including budget deficit spending and labor market dislocations? Sergey Aleksashenko, Member of the Russian Anti-War Committee Irina Busygina, Visiting Scholar, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University Vladislav Inozemtsev, Director, Centre for Post-Industrial Studies Alexander Libman, Professor of Russian and East European Politics, Freie Universität Berlin (online) Moderator: Ivan Kurilla, Visiting Tallman Scholar in Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies, Bowdoin College |
| 11:30 AM – 12:00 PM ET: Coffee Break |
| 12:00 PM – 1:15 PM ET: Session 2: Western Adaptations What has been the economic impact of sanctions on the EU? What did Russia aim to accomplish by cutting off natural gas supply to Europe and food imports from certain Western countries? How have the EU and Ukraine remained resilient in the face of Russia’s countermeasures, including natural gas supply disruptions and blocking the Black Sea? What strategies have been employed to mitigate their impacts? To what extent is the unraveling of economic ties between Russia and the West irreversible? Margarita Balmaceda, Professor of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University Hugo Bromley, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Center for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge Tymofiy Mylovanov, President, Kyiv School of Economics Moderator: Sulmaan Khan, Associate Professor of International History and Chinese Foreign Relations, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |
| 1:15 PM – 2:15 PM ET: Lunch |
| 2:15 PM – 3.30 PM ET: Session 3: Trading with the Enemy What explains the substantial volumes of ongoing trade between Russia and certain Western countries? Why does Europe continue buying Russian natural gas via the Ukrainian and TurkStream pipeline systems and LNG? How has the Russia-Ukraine war affected the global supply of agricultural products and fertilizers? Why does Russia continue to ship titanium to the West, despite its ability to cut titanium supply and potentially disrupt Western aviation production? Why are many Western technology companies continuing to do business in Russia? Why has there not been a complete economic decoupling of Russia from the West, and what does that imply for future conflicts? Elina Ribakova, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) Mariya Grinberg, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Alena Epifanova, Research Fellow, Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) Rosella Cappella Zielinski, Associate Professor of Political Science, Boston University Moderator: Mikhail Troitskiy, Visiting Scholar, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University; Visiting Professor, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |
| 3:30 PM – 4:45 PM ET: Session 4: Complex Manufacturing Sectors How have Western export controls impacted Russian manufacturing and technology sectors? How might “ghost trades” and parallel imports be helping Russia get ahold of “dual use” goods for defense and intelligence services? How are secondary sanctions being implemented and enforced, and have they been effective in preventing third parties from trading with Russia? Chris Miller, Professor of International History, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University Allen Maggard, Analyst, Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS) Pavel Luzin, Visiting Scholar, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University Moderator: Alexandra Vacroux, Vice President for Strategic Engagement, Kyiv School of Economics |
| 4:45 PM – 5:15 PM ET: Coffee Break |
| 5:15 PM – 6:30 PM ET: Book Talk and U.S.- Russia Relations Book Prize Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict between Russia and the West (2023) by Maximilian Hess, Central Asia Fellow, Eurasia Program, Foreign Policy Research Institute |
| 6:30 PM ET: Dinner |
Friday, September 27
Cheryl A. Chase Center
| 08:45 AM – 09:15 AM ET: Registration and Breakfast |
| 09:15 AM – 10:30 AM ET: Session 5: International Financial System What has been the impact of international financial measures targeting Russia’s central bank, financial sector, and access to international capital? What are the roles of international financial institutions in the implementation of sanctions? How has Russia’s banking system managed to stay afloat? What are the global ramifications of the West attempting to seize Russia’s foreign exchange and gold reserves? Edward Fishman, Senior Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University Rachel Ziemba, Founder, Ziemba Insights; Adjunct Senior Fellow, Energy, Economics, & Security Program, Center for New American Security Moderator: Daniel Drezner, Distinguished Professor of International Politics, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |
| 10:30 AM – 11:00 AM ET: Coffee Break |
| 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM ET: Session 6: International Energy Markets What lessons can be learned from Russian and Western efforts to impose trade restrictions on natural gas, petroleum, coal, and uranium markets? To what extent have these efforts succeeded, and what new responses and adaptations have they catalyzed? What role are intermediaries playing in Western energy imports from Russia? How are global energy dynamics shifting as a result? Are sanctions helping or hurting international efforts to tackle climate change? Sergey Vakulenko, Nonresident Scholar, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Craig Kennedy, Center Associate, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University Moderator: Mihaela Papa, Director of Research and Principal Research Scientist, MIT Center for International Studies; Senior Fellow, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |
| 12:15 PM – 1:15 PM ET: Lunch |
| 1:15 PM – 2:30 PM ET: Session 7: China’s Conclusions How does China interpret economic warfare between Russia and the West? What are the consequences of Russia’s growing economic dependence on China and trading fossil fuels? What role does China play in supporting, mitigating, or circumventing Western sanctions? In what ways have sanctions influenced the trade dynamics and relations of China with the West? How do other non-Western countries perceive and respond to sanctions? Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Mihaela Papa, Director of Research and Principal Research Scientist, MIT Center for International Studies; Senior Fellow, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University Moderator: Arik Burakovsky, Assistant Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |
| 2:30 PM – 3:00 PM ET: Conclusion What policy implications should the United States draw from economic warfare surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war? What would it take for sanctions to be lifted? How does the current state of sanctions inform the future use of sanctions, and what are the long-term geopolitical repercussions? What additional sanctions might be imposed by Western countries and Russia? Chris Miller, Professor of International History, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University Daniel Drezner, Distinguished Professor of International Politics, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University |