Alternate Endings

Interview with Assistant Professor of International History at the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy at Tufts University by Michael Bluhm

Michael Bluhm: Could an end be close?

Chris Miller: It doesn’t seem so. The Ukrainians plausibly think they could take back a substantial spread of the territory that Russia has conquered, which is about 20 percent of the country. And although Moscow has rolled back the initial war aims that President Vladimir Putin articulated on February 24 before invading, it’s still trying to eke out something that looks like a victory—something that it can sell at home as a victory and that Putin can sell to himself as a victory. But that’s not coming soon. Neither is it clear, at this point, what Putin would need to feel satisfied that he had a victory.

As long as the Ukrainians want to continue pushing the Russians back, and the Russians aren’t willing to give up any territory or call things to a halt, this phase of the war could be protracted.

Bluhm: What do you see as realistic possible outcomes for Russia now?

Miller: One scenario is that it achieves something that looks to everyone like a victory: It pushes back the Ukrainian army and captures all of the Donbas—Donetsk and Luhansk provinces—and holds the territory it’s got in the South. If Russia could do that, and force the Ukrainians to accept its effective control over those territories, then that will look like a victory. But everything we’ve learned about the Russian military over the past three months points to the conclusion that the Russian military is probably not going to succeed at that—even if we can’t entirely rule it out.

To access the rest of the interview, go to The Signal.