As Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on, Kyiv’s neighbors are loading up on new high-tech military gear

By Constantine Atlamazoglou, alumnus of The Fletcher School and writer on transatlantic and European security

• Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine has upended the security situation in Europe.
• In response, European countries, especially those in Eastern Europe, are buying more weapons.
• Two of Ukraine’s neighbors, Poland and Romania, are spending big on jets, tanks, and artillery.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended European security, driving countries there to plan once again for the possibility of a major land war.

Those European countries have transferred billions of dollars’ worth of military hardware to Ukraine, and now they are seeking to rebuild their own stocks.

Poland and Romania both border Ukraine and have been affected by the war. In addition to receiving an influx of Ukrainians fleeing the fighting, both countries have seen errant missiles and drones land in their territory, raising tensions and fears of a wider conflict.

Warsaw and Bucharest have also provided Ukraine with valuable weaponry, from artillery to fighter jets, and they are now stepping up their own arms purchases.

Spending spree

Based on disclosed weapon transfers, Poland is Europe’s second biggest contributor of military aid to Ukraine, sending Kyiv large quantities of Soviet-era arms.

Warsaw is now replacing that hardware with modern Western weapons, expanding its arsenal in the process.

In September, Warsaw announced the purchase of 486 HIMARS launchers along with 45 ATACMS missiles and other rockets and warheads for $10 billion. Poland already bought 20 HIMARS systems in 2019, and it will reportedly start receiving the new batch in 2025.

HIMARS has been praised from their effectiveness in Ukraine and their ability to fire and quickly relocate to avoid counter-artillery fire. ATACMS have a range of 190 miles and can be fired from HIMARS launchers.

Poland also announced in September a $2 billion purchase of several hundred Naval Strike Missiles from Norway. NSMs have a range of about 115 miles and are primarily designed to target ships but can also be used against land targets. Poland will use them to bolster its defenses against Russian warships, mainly from the Baltic Fleet in neighboring Kaliningrad.

Poland will also buy 48 Patriot missile launchers and 12 Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensors. LTAMDS, which is still in its prototype phase, will be the US Army’s next missile-defense radar; Poland is the first international buyer.

The US State Department has approved Poland’s request to buy 96 US-made AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and a large complement of missiles for $14 billion. The 96 Apaches will make Poland the largest operator of the helicopter after the US.

Warsaw is reinforcing its ground forces with 366 Abrams main battle tanks, 250 of which are the advanced M1A2 variant. (Last year, Poland opened an Abrams training academy for crews accustomed to using Soviet-designed tanks.) Poland will receive its first Abrams this year to replace the Soviet-era tanks it has sent to Ukraine.

Poland is not only buying arms from NATO countries. In July 2022, it announced a massive $14.5 billion purchase of 1,000 K2 Black Panther tanks, nearly 700 K-9 self-propelled howitzers, and 48 FA-50 combat aircraft from South Korea.

The decision to buy South Korean arms was based on the fast delivery times promised by Seoul — the first FA-50 aircraft has already joined the Polish Air Force — and on Poland’s need to diversify its supply chains in case of a conflict, the Polish defense minister said at the time. The Polish Air Force will also be strengthened with 32 F-35A stealth jets that are expected to start arriving in 2024.

To facilitate Warsaw’s arms purchases, Washington announced this week that it will extend it a $2 billion loan.

Romania is also making major arms purchases to modernize and improve its ground and air forces.

In May, it retired its fleet of MiG-21s, leaving its air force with only 17 F-16 jets. It is now awaiting delivery of 32 F-16s from Norway. The F-16 will be a transition platform for Romania’s air force as it awaits F-35 stealth jets. Bucharest plans to purchase 32 F-35s for $6.5 billion in 2024 and will reportedly buy another 16 in the future.

Romania also plans to buy 54 US-made M1A2 Abrams tanks for $1.1 billion and is seeking to purchase 150 Swiss-made Piranha 5 armored personnel carriers.

Romania shares a border with Ukraine along the Danube River, where Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports have come close to Romanian territory. Bucharest has already purchased Naval Strike Missiles to defend its Black Sea coast, and tensions there may lead it to buy more naval hardware in the future. (In August, it canceled a deal to buy four French corvettes, saying the manufacturers failed to sign the contract on time.)

The Romanian government also sees South Korea as a potential supplier. According to local media, Bucharest wants to buy an additional 300 main battle tanks and a number of howitzers and is looking at the K2 Black Panther tank and K-9 howitzer as its main options.

Increased demand

In response to Russia’s aggression, defense budgets are going up across Europe, with nearly all NATO members in Eastern Europe increasing their defense spending from last year.

Poland has been NATO’s biggest spender in 2023 with 3.9% of its GDP going to defense, which is almost double the alliance’s 2%-of-GDP target and up from 2.4% in 2022. Romania has also increased its defense spending from slightly below 2% in 2022 to 2.5% this year.

Eastern Europe’s arms industry has also been strengthened by the new demand. Arms manufacturers in Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic are increasing production capacity, and Romania plans to overhaul its state defense industry to keep up with incoming orders.

A large share of that increased production, which includes older models and new designs, will go to Ukraine and to replenish the arsenals of the countries aiding Kyiv. The firms that are ramping up output are also looking for new customers, however.

“Taking into account the realities of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the visible attitude of many countries aimed at increased spending in the field of defense budgets, there is a real chance to enter new markets and increase export revenues in the coming years,” the CEO of Poland’s state-run PGZ, which controls dozens of arms makers, told Reuters late last year.

(This post is republished from Business Insider.)