Asel Murzakulova on Climate and Security in Central Asia
By Ryland Pitts, MALD 2026
Many thought leaders and decision-makers fail to consider climate change when thinking about regional security in Central Asia; their approach usually focuses on nation-building. However, droughts and a marked increase in extreme natural events demand a new understanding of the existing state of knowledge about Central Asia. We must now work to understand the nexus between security and climate change.
This was the thesis of Asel Murzakulova in her talk at The Fletcher School on November 20, 2024. The event, titled “Growing Challenges of Climate Change and Hydro Policy within Central Asia,” was organized jointly by the Russia and Eurasia Program and the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy (CIERP). Murzakulova is a Senior Research Fellow at the Graduate School of Development at the University of Central Asia. She has extensive experience across government, international, and civil sectors in Central Asia. Her research spans border dynamics, human mobility, environmental change, natural resource management, and nationalism. Her current work focuses on resource management challenges across borders between Central Asian states.
During the Soviet Union, attention was mainly given to the Aral Sea and its primary feeding rivers—the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. The rivers were diverted to irrigate cotton fields and other agricultural projects. Since the 2000s, water withdrawals for agriculture have declined, but Central Asian states remain fixated on water management issues. For example, Murzakulova discussed a deal between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan involving the transfer of ownership of a water reservoir in exchange for land.
The Soviet Union’s integrated system meant Central Asian borderlands and shared infrastructure rarely posed significant issues. However, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, borderlands and shared infrastructure have become salient challenges as water politics dominate discourse. Regulating downstream water releases for Aral Sea restoration restricts upstream countries like Kyrgyzstan from optimizing hydroelectric power use, especially in winter when flows are reduced. Kyrgyzstan froze its membership in the region’s only regional water organization in May 2016, amid an acute military conflict that erupted after the country asserted its sovereign right over the Kasan-Sai (also known as Orto-Tokoy in Kyrgyzstan) reservoir, which was occupied by Uzbek military forces. Since then, despite the restoration of good-neighborly relations with Uzbekistan—highlighted by the exchange of the Andijan reservoir under Uzbekistan’s jurisdiction—it has not restored its participation in the Basin Council. Murzakulova commented, “This is significant, as Kyrgyzstan holds a crucial position in controlling water demand in the Toktogul reservoir, the most important reservoir on the Syr Darya.”
Amid all of this, Murzakulova highlighted that climate change is a “missed layer,” not central to discussions among governments. The frequency of floods, droughts, and extreme weather events is rising, the pace of ice melt is accelerating, and snowfall is declining. With earlier summer onsets, the region’s glaciers—which sustain upstream hydropower and downstream irrigation—are shrinking rapidly. Central Asia’s glaciers are melting faster than the global average and could lose up to 75 percent of their 2015 mass by the year 2100. While water politics remains a priority, climate change demands greater attention.
Asel also advocated for regional cooperation and the development of a legal framework to manage hydro politics. If states leverage asymmetrical water advantages, it could increase the risk of regional conflict. A cooperative framework that treats water as a shared resource and creates mutual benefits is essential for stability. Central Asian governments must recognize that climate and water stress directly impact regional security.
