Please join the Fletcher Russia and Eurasia Program at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University for a talk by Dr.  Visiting Professor and Administrator of the Russia and Eurasia Program at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, who will evaluate the record of Eurasian autocrats managing their ruling coalition in the lead-up to or aftermath of risky maneuvers at home or abroad.

RSVP link: https://forms.gle/jWenUQF9it4w1oJU9

Latest research reveals a pivotal paradox behind Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine: the very elites who had the most to lose were lulled into inaction. In this timely talk, the speaker will unpack how Putin employed “dual-track” signals–saber-rattling for the masses coupled with private reassurances to oligarchs and technocrats–to neutralize potential dissent. This strategy of audience segmentation kept Russia’s globally connected insiders complacent as war loomed. But the tactic carried a tradeoff: it enabled risky aggression with minimal pushback, yet degraded internal deliberation and left the Kremlin stuck in a far more coercive post-invasion posture.

Broadening the lens, the lecture compares how post-Soviet strongmen navigate crises. Why do some dictators double down on repression while others quietly bargain with their elites? Drawing on cases from Kazakhstan to Belarus, the speaker illustrates that even seemingly omnipotent rulers are often constrained by coalition politics. From Kazakhstan’s mix of crackdowns and concessions to Belarus’s heavy-handed purge, we see the delicate balance between negotiating and coercing insiders. The talk will explore what these survival strategies mean for international diplomacy and sanctions–offering fresh insight into the hidden signals and power struggles shaping Eurasia’s geopolitical landscape.

Dr. Mikhail Troitskiy is Visiting Professor and Administrator of the Russia and Eurasia Program at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He was a visiting scholar at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies in 2024-25 and a professor of practice in Russian studies at the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 2023-24. From 2003 to 2022, he held academic and philanthropic roles in Russia, including service as dean and associate professor at MGIMO University and as deputy director and program officer at the MacArthur Foundation’s Moscow office. His research focuses on international security, conflict resolution, negotiation, Russian foreign policy, and Eurasian politics. He has published in Post-Soviet Affairs, Negotiation Journal, WIREs Climate Change, Problems of Post‑Communism, Survival, Global Policy, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and has contributed commentary to Newsweek, The International New York Times, Fox LiveNow, CNN, NPR, Boston 7News, the BBC, ABC Australia, The Moscow Times, and other outlets.