Expect the Unexpected in 2023: Cyberattacks and the Next Covid

By Fletcher Dean Emeritus James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander of NATO

Ukraine, Taiwan and Iran top the list of potential crises, but the US isn’t prepared for less-obvious global cataclysms.

With the new year upon us, the big worries for global security are pretty obvious. We should be concerned about a springtime escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, with the potential for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, in increasing desperation, to use a tactical nuclear weapon. While highly unlikely, a nuclear yield could further distort the world’s military, economic and diplomatic foundations. 

A second clear danger is a Chinese attack on Taiwan, which would be even more seismic — in regard to everything from a huge impact on the manufacture of high-end microchips to reordering global trading patterns as sanctions are levied against Beijing. 

Third, there is the intense popular unrest in Iran. Potential outcomes there range from the theocracy being overthrown to a brutal crackdown by the mullahs and a lashing out against regional foes Israel and Saudi Arabia.

US policymakers and analysts will spend a great deal of time anticipating and planning for these dramatic, low-likelihood scenarios. When I was supreme allied commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, we would war-game various scenarios, including some in which Russia played the nuclear card. It never ended well for either side. And during the many years I spent in the Pacific commanding destroyers, I had plenty of chances to look at our war plans in case of an attack on Taiwan.

These are areas for which the Department of Defense is reasonably well prepared, even if the risks are high and costs would be great. Yet what things are swimming just beneath the surface that could end up creating unexpected global turmoil? What are we failing to foresee?

At the top of my list is a growing potential for a global series of cyberattacks.

Every year, the number of devices connected to the internet grows rapidly. By some estimates, the count is up to more than 50 billion devices, from around 7 million a decade ago. The benefits are real and obvious. (Hooray, I can close my garage door from a thousand miles away on my household Nest!) But so is the fact that each of those devices is a unique point of attack for hackers. We have created a vast, undefendable threat surface.

Just as in the world of athletics, where records get broken as competitors’ physical prowess improves, a new generation of black hatters is constantly learning, growing and practicing their craft. More tools are readily available online, and groups with grievances and skills are migrating toward each other, often with tacit or even overt encouragement from national governments.

Nation-states are honing their online abilities, both for defense and offense. While the US does not (as yet) have a designated Cyber Force like the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force and Space Guardians, many nations already do; and others are contemplating creating such a dedicated force. Putin not only has “in house” government and military hackers, he also has shown a propensity to draw on private-sector Russian criminal actors, essentially giving them the equivalent of a 17th-century “letter of marque” to act as pirates against Russia’s enemies.

Given the support provided to Ukraine by the West, Putin may be readying severe cyberattacks in 2023. They are a low-manpower, low-cost approach — just what he needs as he burns through men and equipment in his failed invasion. He will most likely go after low-hanging fruit: consumer supply chains for food, gasoline, medical supplies and other critical but poorly defended targets. Russians have shown a willingness to do this, such as the attacks launched against JBS meat packing and the Colonial Pipeline gas network in 2021.

China likewise has very capable cyberwarriors, although they tend to be less inclined to use brute force offensive attacks in favor of deep espionage, often directed against national security and research and development centers. Iran and North Korea also have highly capable cyber capabilities.

We ought to be thinking a great deal more about these risks and how to counter them in the year ahead. A 9/11-level cyber event could be directed against America’s vulnerable transportation grid (look at how airlines were brought to their knees by a severe winter storm this week, and how easily airports had their customer websites hacked in October), our shaky electric utilities (tens of thousands of customers around the nation lost power last year after simple acts of vandalism), and the financial system (well defended, but still a tempting target).

The second under-the-radar potential global risk is a resurgence of some new variant of Covid or an entirely fresh pathogen. Throughout human history, we have seen again and again the cycle of lethal pandemic, followed by adaptation of the human species. But eventually another deadly virus emerges. Given how compressed our human populations are in vast urban centers, along with the ubiquity of global travel, there is every reason to believe it will come sooner rather than later.

Of particular concern is the situation in China, where 1.4 billion people are abruptly being relieved from President Xi Jinping’s strict Zero Covid policy without the kind of medical safety net provided by advanced mRNA vaccines, a strong hospital network capable of dealing with massive numbers of very sick individuals, or a firm system to distribute palliative measures for the sickest. Because of Zero Covid, there is very little natural immunity in the vast population, and the elderly are at very high risk. And Chinese citizens will now be free to travel the globe, releasing years of pent-up tourism demand. All of that creates a petri dish that could flash-produce another pandemic.

Most of the world has learned a great deal about the vast effects of public-health crises in the past two years. But China, coming out of its self-induced bubble, is far behind the curve, and a massive epidemic starting there could decimate the global economy and cause the sort of widespread political unrest that leads to conflict.

Should we be worried about the war in Ukraine, a restive Chinese attitude toward Taiwan, and severe turbulence in the Middle East? Of course. But so often it is a sudden and unexpected series of events that truly disrupt the international system. Beware cyberattacks and pandemics lurking beneath the waves of an already choppy international sea.

This piece is republished from Bloomberg.