How the West Can Secure Ukraine’s Victory: A Path Forward

By Yury Terekhov, Political Consultant, Researcher, and Former Visiting Scholar at the The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy

During the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, held on May 14 and May 15, the International Taskforce on Ukraine’s Security and Euro-Atlantic Integration, led by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, presented a crucial report. The summit involved a robust discussion on strategies to secure Ukraine’s victory against Russian aggression and to fortify its position within the broader Western alliance. The report delineates several critical measures, emphasizing the unblocking of $300 billion in frozen Russian assets and lifting restrictions on the types and use of conventional weapons supplied to Ukraine.

Unblocking Frozen Russian Assets

One of the most immediate and impactful steps proposed in the report is unblocking $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. More than $6 billion of the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets is sitting in U.S. banks. Most of the $300 billion in assets is in Germany, France, and Belgium. These funds are vital for Ukraine’s war efforts and its subsequent reconstruction. The use of these assets would not only bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend itself but could also facilitate the rebuilding of its war-torn infrastructure, ensuring the country’s long-term stability and resilience.

The strategic deployment of these funds can transform Ukraine’s current defensive posture into a more formidable offensive capability. By ensuring a steady flow of financial resources, Ukraine can sustain its military operations, procure advanced weaponry, and repair critical infrastructure. This financial support is essential for Ukraine to maintain its sovereignty and deter future aggression from Russia.

Lifting Restrictions on Weapon Deliveries

The report also strongly advocates for lifting all caveats on the types of conventional weapons delivered to Ukraine, including their use against military targets inside Russia. This approach aims to reduce Russia’s capacity to wage war and to increase pressure on Moscow to cease its hostilities.

Current restrictions on weapon types and their use limit Ukraine’s ability to strike back effectively. Removing these restrictions would enable Ukraine to target Russian military infrastructure and logistics centers, disrupting supply chains and degrading the operational capabilities of Russian forces. This strategic shift could force Russia to reconsider its aggressive tactics, knowing that Ukraine can and will respond robustly to any further incursions.

NATO and Broader Western Security Measures

Beyond these immediate actions, the report outlines additional security measures that NATO and Western allies should adopt to ensure Ukraine’s victory and long-term security. These include:

1. An Extended Air-Defense Shield: Establishing an extended air-defense shield along Ukraine’s western border is crucial for protecting NATO territories and Ukrainian civilians from Russian missile and drone strikes, allowing Ukraine to reallocate its air-defense systems to the frontlines.

2. A Black Sea Security Mission: Deploying a freedom of navigation and demining mission in the Black Sea would facilitate the safe passage of freighters, helping to restore commercial shipping and alleviate global food shortages exacerbated by the conflict.

3. Increased Training and Logistics Support: Ramping up the training of Ukrainian forces and providing forward logistics support are essential for enhancing Ukraine’s military effectiveness. NATO allies could deploy civilian contractors or military specialist teams to repair equipment within Ukraine, minimizing downtime and ensuring that Ukrainian forces remain combat-ready.

4. A Commitment to Long-Term Military Assistance: NATO allies should commit to spending the equivalent of 0.25% of their GDPs on military assistance to Ukraine. This sustained financial support would ensure that Ukraine can continuously modernize its military and remain resilient against future threats.

Path to NATO Membership

The ultimate guarantee of Ukraine’s security lies in its integration into NATO. The report recommends inviting Ukraine to begin NATO accession talks at the upcoming summit in Washington, D.C., with a clear timeframe for membership by no later than July 2028. This move would signal a strong and unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s defense and its alignment with Western democratic values.

A clear roadmap to NATO membership would provide Ukraine with a definitive security guarantee, deterring Russian aggression through the principle of collective defense. This step would also affirm the West’s resolve to support Ukraine not only in the present conflict, but in its future endeavors as a sovereign democratic state.

Conclusion

The strategies outlined in the report presented at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit underscore the urgent need for decisive action to secure Ukraine’s victory against Russian aggression. Unblocking Russian assets, lifting restrictions on weapon deliveries, and adopting comprehensive security measures are pivotal steps. Coupled with a clear path to NATO membership, these actions will enhance Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, deter further Russian aggression, and provide for the long-term stability of the Euro-Atlantic region. As the West stands united in support of Ukraine, these measures will pave the way for a secure and sovereign Ukraine that is firmly embedded within the Western alliance. By adopting these robust measures, the West can ensure that Ukraine not only survives but thrives as a beacon of democracy and resilience in the face of aggression.

(This post is republished from The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs.)