NATO’s James Mackey joins the Fletcher community to discuss Russia’s invasion and security implications for NATO

By Alex Thomas, MALD 2023 Candidate, The Fletcher School

On Thursday, March 3, 2022, the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy hosted a Zoom conversation between Dr. Chris Miller and James Mackey, Director of Security Policy and Partnerships in the Political Affairs and Security Policy Division at NATO.

Over the hour, the two spoke about various aspects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from NATO’s perspective and were joined by several hundred current and former Fletcher students via Zoom.

To begin, Director Mackey gave a brief historical background of the conflict and explained how the current invasion directly stemmed from Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Donbas region in February of 2014.

After this historical synopsis, Mackey turned to speak about the weeks and months leading up to the current invasion and the role that U.S. intelligence played. He said that the way the United States declassified intelligence about the Russian buildup of forces on Ukraine’s borders was an attempt to avoid the confrontation and take away the element of surprise.

“We saw this coming from a long way out, so we tried to give Putin avenues for a diplomatic offramp,” Mackey said. “But it’s clear now that Putin was never interested in diplomacy.”

Mackey then spoke about the precautions that NATO is taking to protect the one billion NATO citizens around the globe and to ensure that Russia’s attack on Ukraine does not become an attack on NATO. This involved activating the NATO response force for the first time and placing fighter jets on standby in Europe. Mackey described each of NATO’s steps as “measured and proportional, but steps that wouldn’t escalate tensions with Russia.”

When asked about NATO implementing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, Mackey said that “it’s the hardest situation for NATO ever. A no-fly zone would turn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into a Russian-NATO conflict.”

Mackey concluded his opening points by speaking about the path forward.

“What we need right now are more sanctions, and for Russia to realize that a war of choice with Ukraine does not enhance Russia’s security. This situation challenges the peace and prosperity for all, not just for Ukrainians,” Mackey added.

After Mackey’s opening remarks, Dr. Miller asked Mackey about the steps that NATO is taking to mitigate the risk of the Russia-Ukraine conflict from spilling over. In line with his earlier points, Director Mackey responded by reaffirming NATO’s commitment to defending its allies

and stressing the importance of finding a diplomatic resolution within the parameters of the UN Charter.

When asked about Putin placing Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on standby, Mackey stressed that Putin is taking these kinds of actions because Russia is in a position of weakness, not strength, as it has failed to swiftly take Ukraine. Further, Mackey highlighted how NATO’s nuclear signaling to Russia remains unchanged in light of this because it “lowers the threshold for [nuclear weapons] to be used and feeds into Putin’s narrative of an evil NATO.”

After multiple questions from the audience on topics ranging from cyber and military to NATO’s external relationships and democracy, Director Mackey closed the discussion by further reiterating the importance of finding a diplomatic solution to the crisis and the role that sanctions can play in de-escalation.

“The only ground for hope here is that Russia is shocked by how integrated it is in the world economy.”

James Mackey graduated from The Fletcher School in 2000 and in his capacity with NATO, oversees NATO’s political relationship with its allies, partner countries, and international organizations.