Opportunities for U.S.-Russia Cooperation on Climate Policy

By Maxim Kondratenko, MALD 2022 Candidate, The Fletcher School

Over the last several months, government officials from the United States and Russia have engaged in a series of high-profile discussions concerning the two countries’ climate policies and the possibility of collaboration in the realm of sustainable development. As part of my work as a research assistant with the Fletcher Russia and Eurasia Program, I have analyzed the strategies of the United States and Russia pertaining to climate policy and sustainable development. I believe that climate policy offers a promising field for productive long-term cooperation between the two countries, despite growing geopolitical tensions between them.

In recent years, both countries have taken concrete steps toward developing new platforms for climate dialogue and negotiation. The most prominent advocate of this approach in Russia has been the Ministry of Economic Development, which recently introduced a bill promoting the concept of “climate change adaptation” within Russian policy practice. The Russian government formally ratified the Paris Agreement in October 2019, while the United States rejoined the treaty in January 2021. Openness to climate collaboration is also visible in the active diplomatic circuits of Russian Special Presidential Representative on Climate Issues Ruslan Edelgeriyev and U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry. The first meeting between the two climate representatives was held in March 2021, with the promise of more collaboration going forward. Throughout this year, both Kerry and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken have held a series of meetings with Russian Federation Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, further underscoring the mutual desire to build bilateral cooperation on climate change.

At the same time, climate policy is not exempt from the overall worsening of U.S.-Russia relations, and not all recent interactions between the two countries have facilitated bilateral cooperation. As part of the West’s sanctions campaign against the Kremlin, the United States enacted sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG, which is responsible for constructing the gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Despite the United States’ recent decision to lift sanctions on the company, the Biden administration has reiterated its opposition to the completion of Nord Stream 2 and maintained sanctions on at least nine Russian entities with ties to the project. But while the Nord Stream 2 incident increased bilateral tensions and guaranteed Russia’s short-term economic reliance on gas exports, Moscow’s long-term climate strategy is heavily cognizant of the importance of adapting both its economy and its energy sources to future needs. Both the European Union and China, Russia’s two largest prospective gas export markets, have announced their intention to move away from fossil fuel energy by 2050 as part of their commitments to the Paris climate accord. Russia is thus faced with a broader global decline in demand for its most significant export. In light of these prospects, the United States’ invitation to collaborate on addressing climate change in spite of disagreements has been well received among the top ranks of Russia’s leadership.

Prospects for U.S.-Russia climate collaboration are also limited by the relative lack of diplomatic frameworks within which the two countries have partnered effectively, but those that do exist have been identified and promoted. By far the most extensive network of U.S.-Russian climate cooperation concerns the far north, given both countries’ participation in and commitment to the integrity of the Arctic Council. As a result, potential collaboration within this international institution has been heavily discussed by U.S. and Russian government officials. That might seem like a flimsy premise on the surface, as neither country has made climate change mitigation a priority in its Arctic policy. The United States has made limited investments in the region, and what little involvement it has is primarily oriented around defense partnerships with NATO. Russia’s investment in the region is concerned almost exclusively with making use of economic opportunities exposed by melting polar ice, such as opening shipping routes that were previously inaccessible. Nonetheless, both the United States and Russia participate in the work of Arctic Council working groups dedicated to the protection of the Arctic marine environment, sustainable development in the region, and other environmental priorities. Scientists from both countries contribute to Arctic Council reports and publications ranging from the original Arctic Climate Impact Assessment to the annual Arctic Report Card. In more practical matters, both countries have been actively involved in the crafting of binding regional agreements such as the Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement, potentially laying the groundwork for future multilateral commitments on climate policy.

The climate crisis has achieved recognition in both the United States and Russia as an urgent policy priority. Both countries are now displaying the ability and willingness to engage constructively with each other on this issue, notwithstanding heightened geopolitical tensions and decreased prospects for collaboration in most other fields. In spite of the complications inherent in this strategy, I believe that the United States and Russia have the potential to develop a productive working relationship on climate change and sustainability.