Professor Chris Miller Discusses Semiconductors, National Security, and Geopolitics
By Vishal Manve, MALD 2023 Candidate, The Fletcher School
On October 5, 2022, the Russia and Eurasia Program at The Fletcher School organized a book launch for Professor Chris Miller’s fourth book, “Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology.” The event was chaired by Professor Josephine Wolff and was organized amidst a flurry of media promotions and news appearances by Miller.
Narrating the idea driving the book, Professor Miller outlined how delving deeper into the Soviet Union’s history led to further research on technologies and innovations made during the period.
“I wanted to understand why the U.S. and Soviet Union both could make nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union was able to launch the first rocket into space, so the Soviets had substantial technological capacity in certain spheres and incredible academic apparatus—but what they couldn’t do was miniaturize computing power, and this is one of the most important technologies of the Cold War,” Miller said.
While the first chips in the U.S. were produced from the Apollo space program and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles program, Miller added that the Soviet Union was “trying to do the same thing but less effectively.”
Illustrating Japan’s rise and subsequent stagnation as a chip maker in the 1970s, Miller added that Japan at one point was a crucial chip maker, and hoped to leverage its advantage in geopolitical bargaining and diplomacy.
Miller explained the role of the state in fostering chip making and capacity building through multiple tools, including lower interest rates. He added, “Building chips is brutally expensive and today, a chip fab costs $20 billion.”
Addressing Wolff’s question on the core concepts of the book, Miller explained the difference between semiconductors, insulators, and conductors, and the science behind making chips.
“Semiconductors turn on and off like switches, and this has led to a huge demand in technology development, including for iPhones which need transistors. Transistors are millions of switches that turn on and off and power our technology,” Miller explained.
Three firms dominate 100 percent of market share in designing chips, Miller added, stating how the U.S. is good at designing software that further facilitates chip designs.
“Most of the machine tools that design chips are made in the U.S.; it produces 10-15 percent of the chips and Europe roughly does the same,” Miller said. He further stated how Europe has dominance on lithography machines (ASML), the most crucial component in the chip-making process. However, neither the U.S., Europe, nor Japan can mass produce chips like Taiwan’s TSMC, which produces 90 percent of advanced chips, or South Korea’s Samsung, which produces the remaining 10 percent.
Professor Miller further contrasted how a potential China-Taiwan war or a Taiwan blockade would impact global technological production, including smartphones, weaponry, and other medical devices. He explained how the U.S. and China were in a tech race due to chip production capacity in Taiwan.
Responding to a question about U.S. strategies to counter adversarial actions on technology development from China, Miller said, “We want a system where your adversaries are fully reliant on your technology so they don’t have an incentive to produce their own.”
China has been investing heavily in chip manufacturing and production and has a national-level integrated circuit fund, Miller stated. “There is a lot of money from the provincial and national governments going into chip-making facilities, but there is no coherent strategy,” he outlined.
“We know China is putting a lot of money into chip-making but aren’t sure if they are investing in chip tool-making, and it is hard to invest in lithography and catch up to existing or next-generation technologies,” Professor Miller concluded.
The book has been shortlisted by The Financial Times for the Business Book of the Year Award.
