Russia’s trajectory of hate: A big war against the West coming
By Ariel Cohen, Fletcher School alumnus, Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council
Newsflash to Elon Musk: Russia will not stop its aggression over his proposed cease fire in Ukraine — not because of Kyiv’s rejection of Musk’s initiative, but because Vladimir Putin appears to be on a suicidal mission to challenge the Western world order.
As Putin declared in his Sept. 30 speech announcing annexation of Ukrainian territories, his war against the West aims to restore “big, historic Russia.” Putin demonized the U.S., accusing it of “colonialism,” “dollar hegemony,” the spread of “alien values” and promoting “gender surgery.” In addition to appealing to his traditional far-right audience, he is now adding Soviet-style “anti-colonialism” — red meat for the far left.
What he is after is war — beyond Ukraine.
Russian sources are saying that Putin’s mobilization is greater than the announced 300,000. My Scandinavian intelligence sources tell me that they estimate the draft in the 500,000+ range. On Russian Telegram channel ‘Tolkovatal,’ former “Russian Planet” chief editor Pavel Prianikovestimates the Russian government may be conscripting as many as 1.5 million draftees.
The draft has not spared agricultural workers, which may impact the harvest in traditional grain producing regions — while the ethnic minority republics such as Chechnya, Dagestan and Buryatia are priority draft locales. Despite public protests, failing drafts also happened in Russia’s past defeats: the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905 and World War I. However, today the nuclear arsenal is the great equalizer.
While Russia’s untrained recruits may be slaughtered, tactical nukes and strategic nuclear blackmail may work to deter Europe and ultimately to exhaust and defeat Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin’s imperial war threatens other Russian neighbors: Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, and possibly Finland.
Putin, in his Götterdämmerung moment, is fearmongering. In Stalinist propaganda language, he claims that the West “took off their masks and showed their true nature”…“for centuries [the West] wanted to colonize Russia, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union dreamed, but failed, to shatter it into pieces, set off ethnic groups against each other, and condemn them to indolence and extinction.” Like many dictators before him, Putin claims to be engaged in a preventive war to save his homeland.
This is a clear case of psychological projection: He dreamt and failed to create a dollar-free world and establish Russia as an “energy superpower.” He allowed corruption to metastasize through the state’s fabric, undermining its security capabilities. With its mass emigration, skyrocketing divorce rate, and low fertility, Russia, more than the West, demonstrates the collapse of family values.
Putin is not only threatening Russia’s neighbors, but also the world architecture, as he fulminates against the Western financial, technological, political, and cultural domination. He bemoans the destruction of “independent states, traditional values and unique cultures.”
Yet, it is unclear what level of support Putin’s war has at home. Reports suggest that the crowds in Moscow who greeted Putin were bused to the Red Square, and the released video tape analysis indicates that the roars of approval he supposedly received were superimposed by techs like the canned laughter in a Hollywood sitcom. Failed Russian actor Ivan Okhlobystin, appeared at that rally chanting the barbaric call “Goida! Goida!” (“Let’s go!”), which was used by Ivan the Terrible’s goons when they tortured and killed his opponents. This is a Jungian appeal to the darkest corners of Russia’s collective unconscious.
The Russian people are already scared. Public opinion firms report 94 percent refusal to answer questions, and others vote with their feet, dodging the draft. Russian men, escaping the Ukrainian meatgrinder and facing increasingly restrictive immigration policies in Europe, poured into Armenia, Georgia, Mongolia, Turkey, and Uzbekistan.
However, the U.S., the EU and Ukraine are not doing enough to talk to the Russian public over the heads of its rulers, as we did during the Cold War. A systematic, well-funded public education campaign needs to be launched to dismantle Putin’s propaganda.
The West should offer a clear path for political asylum for POWs, draft dodgers, and war opponents. The Russian people, hung up on honor and clamoring to be treated as a great nation, must realize the enormity of their leadership’s offenses and draw the appropriate conclusions, as the Germans did after the Nazi crimes of WWII.
At the same time, the arms supplies to Ukraine need to be accelerated, including modern main battle tanks and aircraft, while a secret and crystal-clear message of a surgically targeted but devastating retaliation needs to be delivered to the Kremlin should it pursue the nuclear option.
Finally, the U.S. needs to do everything possible to boost energy security for Europe as the Russian gas supply disappears, while shoring up — together with Europe — pressure on Moscow from China, India, Brazil, and other countries to foreswear the use of nuclear weapons.
Putin promised a Cuban missile crisis moment in the relations with the West. The world is approaching a moment of truth. We must be united in the face of the threat.
(This post is republished from The Hill.)