The U.S. Can Win Over Russia’s Neighbors

By Ariel Cohen, Alumnus of The Fletcher School at Tufts University.

Central Asia is also vital for America’s rivalry with China.

Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine has provided the U.S. with a critical opportunity to diminish Russia’s influence over its neighbors by giving them technical assistance, economic development and security that neither Moscow or Beijing can.

The peoples of Central Asia and the Caucasus support Ukraine’s struggle. They remember the conquest by their former imperial masters, the czars and communists. They remember the forced Russification and collectivization of agriculture.

Today, many of these countries refuse to back Russia openly and support Ukraine’s territorial integrity, as Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev declared Monday. Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov has refused to recognize the independence of the Moscow-supported secessionist enclaves of Donetsk and Luhansk. Georgia vociferously declared its support of Ukraine, and together with Moldova applied to join the European Union.

Despite their sympathy for Ukraine, Russia’s neighbors still are intimidated by their nuclear-armed ex-master. Yet it’s telling that Moscow feels the need to continue threatening them. Last week, Russian Duma member Mikhail Deliyagin called for the destruction of Azerbaijan’s oil industry and asked followers on social media if nuclear weapons would be an appropriate means. (He later denied he was calling for their use.) Two weeks ago, Russia shut down the pipeline that brings Kazakh oil to the world market at the Russian port of Novorossiysk. The pipeline’s operators say it may be unusable for two months because of storm damage, something industry experts told me isn’t possible. It may be a message to Kazakhstan over Ukraine.

Kazakhstan is under sustained, low-intensity pressure from Russian politicians such as Gennady Zyuganov, who talks about the need to protect Russian-speakers in the north of Kazakhstan—similar to the Russian pretext for invading Ukraine.

The U.S. needs to be ready to step in and provide a geopolitical alternative to Moscow and Beijing. America should offer the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia security and intelligence cooperation, investment, educational opportunities, technical assistance to promote transparency, good governance, legal reforms, and training for private-sector executives and the state apparatus.

Washington and the European Union would also do well to increase their purchases of raw materials, other goods and services from non-Russian Eurasia. Remittances from Russia for migrant workers in Central Asia are economically vital and expected to fall as economic pressure on Russia worsens. In 2020, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan respectively received 31% and 27% of their annual gross domestic product in remittances. Uzbekistan received almost 12%. Sanctions aimed at Russia also should be tailored not to hurt U.S. regional partners.

The war in Ukraine may be the opening salvo of a much broader conflict that will engulf the world. Central Asia is a critical theater as it is surrounded by the four nuclear powers—Russia, China, Pakistan and India—and the aspirant Iran. Controlling this area will be critical to combating the hegemonic aspirations of Moscow and Beijing.

This piece is republished from the Wall Street Journal.