The war in Ukraine is going badly for everyone

By Daniel W. Drezner, Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University

A week ago, just after a bizarre day at the Kremlin where Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine were made clear, I wrote, “everyone will lose in the coming weeks.”

More than 100 hours into Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine in the past 10 years, there remains so much that we do not know. The fog of war is real, and social media only amplifies it. All parties to the conflict have an incentive to slant the truth in their favor. No doubt, readers have seen some video that perfectly encapsulates their feelings about the conflict. Consider the possibility that a longer clip of that same scene might lead to a different interpretation.

So there is a lot of uncertainty. But one thing I am quite certain about is that this remains a lose-lose situation.

Let’s start with the actor that most readers are probably rooting against: Vladimir Putin. The Russian president has lost and lost badly. For 15 years he has coasted on an inflated reputation as a tactical genius and strategic opportunist. He had won quick victories in Georgia and Crimea, and his other adventures in Syria and the Donbass had not gone too horribly. It seemed that he had prepared for this moment of confrontation by stockpiling financial reserves, shoring up strategic partnerships, and attempting to foment discord within NATO members.

Oops. In the air, Russia has yet to establish air supremacy over Ukraine. On the ground, Russian forces have gained some territory but nothing has come fast or easy. Russia’s expectation of rapid decapitation via special forces and paratroopers has come to naught. Every day Kyiv does not fall and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posts something on social media is a day when Putin’s reputation for tactical mastery (and the Russian military’s reputation for competence) gets dented.

If Putin’s war in Ukraine is going rougher than expected, that is nothing compared to Russia’s strategic situation. Sure, Belarus has firmly backed Russia. There are some important countries — China, India, Israel, and the UAE — that have tried to appease Putin. Mostly, however, Russia has found itself diplomatically isolated, economically sanctioned, and on its back foot in the propaganda battle.

Actually, it is worse than that. Putin’s primary strategic aim has been to divide and disorient the west, and to fracture NATO and the European Union with an array of energy carrots and covert sticks. One can debate how well this strategy had worked, but Putin had definitely pocketed some gains.

No longer. For all of Putin’s tenure, Germany’s approach to Russia has been economic engagement and a reluctance to bolster its military. After Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Bundestag speech, that policy is now in the dustbin. Russia faces a Germany newly determined to bolster its military and wean itself from Russian energy. Sweden and Finland now seem super-keen to at least cooperate with NATO if not join it. Japan has joined other Group of Seven allies in knocking Russian banks off the SWIFT financial messaging system. Even pro-Russian leaders in Brazil and Hungary have denounced Putin’s actions in Ukraine.

A week in, Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine has gone badly for Putin. But it is worth pointing out that it has gone badly for everyone. Each day this war continues is another day in which Ukraine is pulverized. The tempo of destruction could increase, as Russia gives up on a quick victory and starts to apply more brutal tactics. According to the United Nations, more than 350,000 Ukrainians have fled the country and entered Europe. So far they are being welcomed with open arms, but if the war drags on that might change.

For many analysts, Putin’s endgame in Ukraine was always fuzzy. But NATO’s endgame is only a little bit clearer. Clearly you will see a buildup of military forces in Eastern Europe. You will also see the Russian economy become even more autarkic and/or more reliant on China — in other words, a Russia that has even less incentive to care about not roiling the West.

Here is a more concise way of putting it: After the past week, can anyone envision an outcome in which Russian planes will be able to fly in European airspace, in which Russian firms will be relied on for global supply chains, in which a normal Group of 20 meeting will take place?

We have entered a new Cold War, which is not something I say lightly. I am old enough to remember that the first iteration of that conflict involved a lot of white knuckles. Putin’s response to failure will probably be to attempt further escalation. The risks of accidental (or intentional) escalation are only going to get worse.

Right now, Americans are cheering on Ukrainian resistance and hoping that protests will lead to an ouster of Putin. That could happen, but anyone familiar with how this century has gone so far should be pessimistic. It is far more likely that Putin clamps down further at home and orders a more savage form of warfare in Ukraine.

No one will win this conflict. There are only losers in geopolitics this week.

This piece was re-published from The Washington Post.