What, exactly, is the state of the Sino-Russian relationship?

By Daniel W. Drezner, Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University

A tale of two Washington Post stories.

In the waning days of 2022 the Washington Post published two stories at approximately the same time. The first one, by Francesca Abel, was pretty straightforward coverage of the virtual meeting between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping:

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met remotely via video link Friday — an indication of Moscow’s latest efforts to strengthen ties with Beijing as Russia’s isolation grows because of its invasion of Ukraine.

As Western nations have imposed sweeping sanctions and distanced themselves from Moscow, China has been bolstering its economic and political ties with Russia, seeing this as an opportunity that could benefit Beijing in the longer term, analysts say. Crucially, Xi has declined to condemn or put pressure on Putin over the invasion….

Xi said that the leaders were regularly “in close, strategic contact” and noted that bilateral relations between Moscow and Beijing had expanded significantly this year.

“In the face of a difficult and far-from-unambiguous international situation, we are ready to build up strategic cooperation with Russia, provide each other with development opportunities, and be global partners for the benefit of the peoples of our countries and in the interests of stability throughout the world,” Xi said.

Seems pretty clear! Abel’s story provides some evidence of expanding cooperation, including a planned state visit by Xi to Moscow this year, recent joint naval drills, the development of Russian gas fields for export to China, and expanding trade ties. The Sino-Russian axis might not be the friendship without limits that was declared eleven months ago — but in the face of U.S. hostility to their great power ambitions, it is unsurprising to see their bilateral ties grow stronger.

Except now we get to the Post’s other story by Catherine Belton. It proffers a darker picture from Russia’s perspective:

As Putin approaches New Year’s Eve, the 23rd anniversary of his appointment in 1999 as acting Russian president, he appears more isolated than ever.

More than 300 days of brutal war against Ukraine have blown up decades of Russia’s carefully cultivated economic relations with the West, turning the country into a pariah, while Kremlin efforts to replace those ties with closer cooperation with India and China appear to be faltering the longer the war grinds on….

Putin “feels the loss of his friends,” said one Russian state official with close ties to diplomatic circles, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. “Lukashenko is the only one he can pay a serious visit to. All the rest see him only when necessary.”

Even though Putin gathered leaders of former Soviet republics for an informal summit in St. Petersburg this week, across the region the Kremlin’s authority is weakening. Putin spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping over video conference on Friday morning in Moscow in an effort to showcase the two countries’ ties. Although Xi said he was ready to improve strategic cooperation, he acknowledged the “complicated and quite controversial international situation.” In September, he’d made clear his “concerns” over the war….

Others said the reason for the tepid relations with India’s and China’s leaders was because they were clearly more worried about further escalation. “We hear there is a worry about the prospect of escalation to the nuclear level,” the longtime member of Russian diplomatic circles said. “And here, it seems to me everyone spoke very clearly that this is extremely undesirable and dangerous.”

Belton’s story sure seems more pessimistic! A lot of her sources seem to be tied into the domestic Russian elite. And those sources confirm Putin’s isolation from Russia’s longstanding allies (as well as Russia’s domestic elites). Outside of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, most of the Commonwealth of Independent States are keeping their distance from Putin. Belton’s framing lumps China with India as countries that are keeping some separation from wartime Russia.

Can these two narratives be reconciled? Sort of! Belton’s piece is about Putin’s increasing domestic and international isolation. What is in her story offers some confirmation of that narrative (though no mention is made of increased cooperation with Iran). In this framing, it is China’s less-than-full-throated support of Russia that stands out.

That said, the U.S. State Department sure seems to be taking that Xi-Putin meeting seriously. A spokesperson said that, “Beijing claims to be neutral, but its behavior makes clear it is still investing in close ties to Russia,” subsequently noting that the U.S. was “monitoring Beijing’s activity closely.” So the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World thinks Belton might be underplaying Sino-Russian ties a bit to fit her narrative.

This doesn’t mean that everything is going great for Moscow, however. As I noted in Vox last year, Russian expectations of Chinese support seem to be pretty exaggerated. And Abel’s story quotes the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Alexander Gabuev noting that while Sino-Russian ties are expanding, they are doing so in an “asymmetric” manner: “Moscow is a much needier partner than China is. China has a lot of alternatives. China is not under sanctions.… It is China that’s dictating the terms of the engagement, not Russia.”

So, to conclude: I think Belton is too pessimistic about the state of Sino-Russian ties. They are clearly expanding. But they are probably not expanding quite as much as Putin would like, and the cooperation represents a lukewarm data point after a year in which most of Russia’s foreign relations have become much, much colder.

This piece is republished from Drezner’s World.