Why did the United States start negotiations with Russia, and not with Ukraine? Will sanctions be lifted from Russia? And has a new world order arrived?

Featuring Mikhail Troitsky, Visiting Scholar at the Fletcher Russia and Eurasia Program

Mikhail Troitsky, a researcher at Harvard University, answers.

Negotiations between the Russian and US delegations ended in Saudi Arabia on February 18. This is the first direct contact between the two countries since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Medusa spoke with Mikhail Troitsky, a visiting researcher at the Davis Center at Harvard University, about why representatives of the European Union and Ukraine were pointedly not invited to the meeting, why the United States is cooperating with Russia, and what Trump’s ultimate goal is.

— Why did the United States decide to talk to Russia in the first place, ignoring Ukraine and Europe? How typical or atypical is this for the United States and Trump?

— We decided to hold large public talks with Russia first for four reasons. First of all, Donald Trump believes that the status element is important to the Russian side. And by showing respect in this way, he will be able to satisfy Russia’s need for status. Secondly, I assume that Trump is thinking, and perhaps he has been informed through some channels, that compromises can be achieved quite quickly from Russia. Thirdly, Trump simply does not want to be like his predecessor Joe Biden, who did not conduct such negotiations. Trump has always stressed that he is on good terms with Vladimir Putin. And apparently, now he wants to show how it would have been necessary to act at the beginning of 2022 or earlier so that the war would not start. Finally, Russia is a major power, and perhaps Donald Trump or his advisers believe that by normalizing relations with it before the end of the war with Ukraine or without it at all, they will be able to gain some benefit in the international arena. Judging by some statements or hints from administration officials, they would like to exclude Russia from the “reliable rear” for China, which Donald Trump considers the main strategic rival of the United States, and turn it into a partner of the United States. In addition, judging by the public statements of the negotiators, Riyadh was not talking about Ukraine, but only about the readiness to normalize relations between Washington and Moscow. The Trump administration can say with full confidence that it did not negotiate behind Ukraine’s back. As a last resort, she clarified Russia’s position on what she needed to end the war.

— Is it possible to say that for Trump this whole story is about business, and not about democracy and assistance to Ukraine? Who does he see in Putin — just a business partner, and not like European countries, for example, a dictator?

— I think the issue of the contrast between dictatorship and democracy is not as acute for Trump as it is for a number of European countries. Moreover, there are those among European countries who do not consider it necessary to isolate Russia, since it is a dictatorship. Perhaps some of Trump’s advisers think that it is possible to do business with or in Russia. And if we return there before the European states do, we can get more favorable conditions. I do not rule out that the Russian side presents exactly such arguments in the negotiations. For example, she could offer to return to the oilfield services sector, to retail or to the production of some consumer goods and get the best possible conditions. But it is unlikely that Donald Trump is motivated by the motive of extracting such benefits for American corporations. In my opinion, he has something like a long-term strategic vision of Russia as a partner. And maybe, by conducting such proactive negotiations, he thereby wants to put pressure on China to worry about what is happening and make concessions to the United States.

— What kind of concessions can we talk about from China?

— There are a number of issues in relations between the United States and China that are being discussed right now. For example, trade and economic contradictions. Trump also talked about negotiations on nuclear weapons between the United States, Russia and China as the largest nuclear powers. Previously, China refused to conduct these negotiations. Now, perhaps, Trump will want to invite China to jump on the train of hypothetical American-Russian cooperation after all.

— There is an opinion that Trump knows how to start negotiations perfectly, but he quickly gets bored and does not participate in the process itself. For example, this was the case during his first term with North Korea. Do you agree with this and will it be the same with Ukraine?

— Still, North Korea has not waged war with anyone the way Russia is waging war with Ukraine today. North Korea bristles with missiles, conducts various kinds of tests and sometimes makes threats against the United States. But it is not waging a major war with the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and widespread destruction. So in the case of Ukraine, the stakes for the Trump administration are still higher. I think the Kremlin is afraid that the negotiations will not end. He needs an end to the war, too. Therefore, he will try to maintain the United States’ interest in Russia and diplomatic and status cooperation for as long as possible. Russia still has quite a few trump cards. In particular, she can offer economic cooperation or somehow balance China, conduct a prisoner exchange, which will give Donald Trump political points. The thesis also applies that it is important for Moscow and Washington to develop cooperation in the Arctic. Russia can play these cards for a long time, even if it fails to end the war immediately. But it is possible that the United States administration will simply turn around, and Donald Trump will feel deceived and try to put pressure on Russia. There is also a possibility that the loss of interest on the part of the American administration will lead to more serious sanctions, since Trump perceives himself as a person capable of achieving his goals. And if the goal is really to end the war, then its failure to achieve it will irritate him, and he may want to return to the issue of new sanctions, embargoes on Russian energy resources and some additional currency restrictions. But I am sure that Moscow will try to do its best to prevent a return to conflict with the United States, since the prospect of “breaking out of isolation” is extremely beneficial to the Kremlin.

— Do you expect the United States to lift sanctions against Russia? If so, which ones, in your opinion, are the most important?

— The Trump administration has recognized that sanctions should be lifted primarily by the European Union, which was Russia’s main trading partner and has already effectively refused to buy Russian gas. At the same time, the Americans are quite capable of removing some of the most painful restrictions that make it extremely difficult for Russia to pay for both imports of goods — now they have to be transported in a roundabout way and pay premium prices for them — and for the export of its energy resources. Donald Trump even discussed the prospect of Russia’s return to the G7, which would mean a complete normalization of Moscow’s status. The main question is how the Trump administration will explain the lifting of sanctions against Russia. Even if Trump is now allowing Moscow to earn status points by holding high-level Russian-American meetings, Washington will not lift sanctions until a lasting peace is achieved on terms acceptable to all. Otherwise, the balance of costs and benefits from negotiations with Russia will be negative for the Trump administration. For example, there will probably soon be open critics of the approach to ending the Russian-Ukrainian war among influential Republicans in the United States. Russia will probably want to lift some of the sanctions without making concessions in the peace process, but it is unclear what opportunities Moscow has for this. Russia’s public position is very far from that of Ukraine, which in any case retains the support of major European countries. In order to maintain hope for the lifting of sanctions, Moscow will have to ease its demands on the post-war world in the near future.

— Should we wait for the return of American companies and services to Russia? And could this lead to other countries also starting to communicate with Russia and lifting sanctions?

— The Kremlin is most likely counting on this dynamic. Perhaps now European companies that may want to return to Russia will come to their governments or to the EU authorities and ask for exceptions so that they will not be replaced by Americans in the Russian market. Even if the Americans themselves don’t want to do business there yet because of the political risks. Now there is a strong impulse and motive for the European authorities to consider whether it is worth deterring companies from resuming services of this kind. Initially, when they left Russia, a moral imperative was important to them. And today, due to the Russian-American negotiations, the moral aspect may weaken. And Ukraine’s call not to do business with Russia may not be enough.

— The United States plans to develop economic cooperation (including in the Arctic) with Russia. How realistic is this and how can this cooperation be expressed?

— In my opinion, it is still difficult to develop international cooperation in this remote and inhospitable region for any business. Yes, in the future it will be attractive to transport containers through the Northern Sea Route, which is controlled by Russia. But at the current level of oil prices, resuming drilling in the Arctic is unlikely to be a profitable commercial venture. Some companies in the United States may be interested in balancing oil fields in the Arctic and resuming partnerships with Russian companies. But this is all a distant prospect. In my opinion, the potential for cooperation or rivalry between anyone in the Arctic is overestimated. So far, this is talking about the distant future, when the Arctic will thaw and it will be possible to extract oil there cheaply.

— The Americans want to get the rights to half of Ukraine’s minerals in exchange for military aid. And regardless of whether it is possible to successfully conclude a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Why, in your opinion, is this for Trump and why are the Americans offering such harsh conditions to Ukraine?

— The Trump team’s desire to get a quick result from Ukraine and personally prove to the president that he has already achieved some success in terms of the interests of the United States and can tell the voters about it played a role. But it didn’t work out that way. This is a draft of an unprecedented interstate agreement. Most often, such agreements deal with the relationship between companies that mine, develop, process, and then sell something. But modern treaties do not record that the state practically renounced its sovereignty over mineral reserves. It is quite possible that the work will continue on different terms at the corporate level, and I think Ukrainians want this too.

— What is the attitude of Trump and his team towards Ukraine? It feels like they don’t want to help as much as they used to.

— Everything is dictated by President Trump’s personal position. Although we have heard statements from his close allies in a rather critical way regarding the assistance that the United States has been providing to Ukraine for hundreds of billions of dollars for several years now. It is clear that this raises questions for the American voter. Therefore, the members of the Trump team consider it necessary to somehow satisfy the demand of the voter. If for Biden, supporting Ukraine was an important element of strengthening the international security system, then for the Trump administration it is becoming more pragmatic and it is simply about transferring money to some state that for some reason does not want to give anything in return.

— U.S. Vice President Vance’s speech in Munich shocked many Europeans. Why is it that the United States has been so criticized and, one might say, left Europe? Did this have any prerequisites?

— The United States, in the spirit of Donald Trump’s approach to international diplomacy, does not say that it has a goal to leave Europe. They point out that there are times when States spend more than they receive. So, troops in Europe are unnecessary, and helping Ukraine in a situation where it is possible to end the war is also not an obligatory cost. This is the ideology that Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency are currently following. But there is no goal here to sever ties with Europe.

— Why Trump (and Musk) Do they so strongly support the right-wing forces in Europe?

— They see them as ideological allies or even fellow prisoners. They believe that the same thing is happening in Europe as in the United States in 2020, when the election was allegedly stolen from Donald Trump. They think that this glass ceiling has finally been broken in the United States, and they want to help break it in other countries.

— Can we say that a new world order is coming? What is he like?

— After all, the change of orders in the international system is traditionally associated with the end of world wars: for example, the Napoleonic Wars, the First and then the Second World War and the Cold War. There is nothing like this on a large scale now, despite the horror of the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. Rather, we see competition flowing from one area to another. For example, the United States is clearly competing for primacy in the global economy with China. The European Union is also not far behind. There is also a competition between management models, and perhaps with the advent of Trump, this division into democratic and authoritarian states will fade into the background.

— And the last question: why would Trump make this peace? Who does he see himself as in this story? What is his motivation?

— His motivation is to quickly reduce unnecessary obligations that are costly for the United States. He needs to show this to his constituents. In addition, he is convinced that he can become an effective peacemaker and end the conflicts that dragged on due to the ineffective policies of his predecessors, primarily the Biden administration. He wants to receive the laurels of a peacemaker, a successful international mediator capable of ensuring the progressive economic development of the whole world and benefiting the United States. At the same time, Donald Trump is very susceptible to criticism, and his emotions can have a strong impact on negotiations.

(This post has been translated from Russian.)

(This post is republished from Meduza.)