Leir Migration Monitor: Diplomacy, Evidence, and Multilateralism in Migration Policymaking

Migration Diplomacy and Greek–Turkish Relations: A Three-Level Game Analysis

Article for the February 17th, 2025 edition of International Migration Journal, by Leir’s Senior Fellow Dr. Gerasimos Tsourapas.

Migration diplomacy is an increasingly important but understudied part of global politics. This article proposes a new three-level game framework to analyze how states use cross-border mobility in domestic, bilateral, and supranational arenas. Using the 2020 Greek–Turkish border crisis as a case study, it shows how internal politics, bilateral disputes, and European institutions shaped each government’s strategy. Drawing on policy documents, media, and interviews, the study reveals how migration crises serve as tools of geopolitical competition. The framework is also applied to Morocco–Spain, Tunisia–EU, and Belarus–EU, offering fresh insight into how migration diplomacy reflects and drives today’s power dynamics.

Read more of Gerasimos Tsourapas’ article here