Hopes, Fears, and Illusions

How Migrants Assess Risk and Process Information on their Journey to El Norte

As noted almost daily in the U.S. media, thousands of migrants and asylum seekers are traveling north through the Americas to try their luck at getting into the United States. The reasons for this surge are complex, but policymakers, pundits, and journalists regularly cite encouraging signals sent by the U.S. government, migrant smugglers, and/or family members. The U.S. response has been to warn people not to come or, worse, to subject migrants to harsh treatment (e.g., diverting them into inhospitable terrain, holding them in freezing detention facilities, separating families, making asylum seekers wait in Mexico) as a deterrent. And, yet, we still have very little data to support the assumptions behind these policies.

With pilot funding from a Tufts Springboard grant, we seek to gain a more systematic and rigorous understanding of what informs the hopes and fears of migrants on the move by interviewing and interacting with them as they journey north through the Americas.

Specifically, we will address two major gaps in our knowledge. The first entails what information migrants get from where. There is significant evidence that they rely on social media, especially Facebook and WhatsApp, to stay in touch with family and friends and to get updates about the journey. But we know much less about the source or content of those communications, including whether smugglers are systematically spreading false information to drum up business. The second gap entails how migrants interpret and then act on this information. Are they, in fact, deterred by an awareness of the obstacles, dangers, and risks? If not, why not? To what extent does new information alter their plans?

Several studies find that “prevention through deterrence” is ineffective, but most of the data come from prospective or return migrants rather than migrants on the move. Through ethnographic research at migrant shelters in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico, our project will gather data directly from migrants on the move while testing and refining methodologies for conducting research with vulnerable populations. Our results will be a key first step toward developing a more empirically robust and humane foundation for U.S. asylum and border policies, which are currently failing at their stated objectives while causing unnecessary human suffering.

Principal Investigators

Dr. Katrina Burgess

Dr. Katrina Burgess

Director, Leir Institute

A migrant specialist with 20+ years of experience doing research with vulnerable populations, Dr. Burgess is an Associate Professor at The Fletcher School at Tufts University. She is also writer and producer of Waylaid in Tijuana, a documentary about Haitians and Central Americans whose journeys to the United States are disrupted by sudden shifts in U.S. policy.

Dr. Kim Howe

Dr. Kim Howe

Leir Senior Fellow

A researcher and trained psychotherapist concerned with the well-being of war-affected populations from a gendered perspective. She is currently an Assistant Research Professor at the Friedman School and a Research Director on Conflict and Governance at the Feinstein International Center at Tufts University.

Team

Shenandoah Cornish

Shenandoah Cornish

Project Manager

Shenandoah Cornish is a non-profit director, social entrepreneur and second year MALD candidate focusing on the International Security and Conflict Resolution. Her studies and professional focus centre around the social dynamics of armed conflict and strategies of coexistence in its aftermath, including the impact of displacement and forced migration. Shenandoah is the founding co-director of Museo Minca, an oral history museum in Northern Colombia that uses storytelling to support grassroots transitional justice initiatives and mitigate the negative impacts of tourism. Her experience has given rise to a deep passion for issues of positionally and trauma-informed practices while working with vulnerable communities.

Diana Serrano

Diana Serrano

Project Manager

Diana is a second year MALD student at Fletcher studying Human Security and International Legal Studies, focusing on migration and human rights. She is originally from Mexico. Before Fletcher, she worked for almost four years in the private and non-profit sectors, assisting in the delivery of legal services to different groups of migrants in Georgia, Northern Virginia, and D.C. Between 2020-2021, Diana worked at Kids in Need of Defense (KIND), where she also had the opportunity to work with children detained in the ORR emergency intake sites along the U.S.- Mexico Border. She was an intern at The International Rescue Committee (IRC) and, most recently, at The Migration Policy Institute (MPI). As an intern at MPI, she supported a research project examining the reintegration and medical and mental health needs of unaccompanied children in U.S. communities. Diana holds a B.A. in Political Science with a concentration in International Affairs from Georgia State University.

Avery Closser

Avery Closser

Research Assistant

Avery is a first year MALD student at Fletcher studying Human Security and Gender and Intersectional Analysis, with a focus on migration and gender dynamics during conflict. Prior to starting at Fletcher, Avery worked for an Immigrant Rights Organization in Tacoma, WA, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Colombo, Sri Lanka, the World Affairs Council non-profit in Seattle, WA, an intellectual property law firm in Seattle, and, lastly, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Avery graduated from the University of Puget Sound with majors in International Political Economy and Spanish, and a minor in Latin American Studies.

Marisol Hernandez

Marisol Hernandez

Research Assistant

Marisol Hernandez is a Research Assistant with the Hopes, Fears, and Illusions project at the Henry J. Leir Institute for Migration and Human Security. She is currently pursuing a Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy at The Fletcher School, where she is concentrating in immigration policy and international security. Previously, Marisol conducted research on financial integration of migrants in Colombia, interned at the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute, and worked at the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Immigration and Cross Border Policy team. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in Politics and Spanish from Bates College in Lewiston, ME.