Russia’s reversion into a police state needs to be watched with caution

By Vishal Manve, MALD 2023 Candidate, The Fletcher School

On May 19, 2022, the Russia and Eurasia Program at The Fletcher School organized its first panel discussion of the War in Ukraine series, featuring alumni from Harvard University and The Fletcher School. This series focused on three key areas impacted by Russia’s war on Ukraine: the humanitarian crisis, the economy, and international security.

The first event in the series centered around the ongoing war in Ukraine and the humanitarian crisis contagion created due to human rights abuses, war crimes, and atrocities. The session was chaired by Fletcher alumnus Mike Eckel, senior correspondent for Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty; Tim Judah, a journalist at The Economist; Daniel Langenkamp, spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv; and Esteban Gerardo Sacco, head of the UNOCHA office in Kyiv.

The panel was moderated by Chris Miller, Assistant Professor of International History at The Fletcher School and Co-Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program.

Mike Eckel, who was in Ukraine before the war, said the conventional on-ground wisdom was “that Russia was going to roll over Ukraine with its military, take Kyiv in three days, and also take Mariupol, seize Donetsk, and Luhansk.”

“Things are going in a very different direction than what was anticipated, and Ukrainians have lost none of their capacity to inflict serious tactical damage on the Russian forces,” Eckel said, explaining how questions around Azov prisoners’ exchange, the Black Sea Fleet capability, the role of Odessa, and other issues are still at play as the war rages on.

The sentiment among the Ukrainian army and civilians was that of determination for fighting for their motherland, Eckel said.

“This is our land, this is our motherland, and we are fighting for our families, fields, homes, and our country. Ukrainians have a sense of determination that is unflinching and courageous,” Eckel said in a recollection of his conversations with people who were embedded in the military unit in the Luhansk region.

“Ukrainians are fighting for their motherland, and that fuels and informs their determination, their courage, and tenacity… I think when this war is all finished, there will be a lot to be said about [how] the fighting spirit of Ukrainians was underestimated by many analysts in the West,” Eckel said.

Meanwhile, Tim Judah traveled through Lviv, Kharkiv, and Odessa a month before the Russian invasion began in Ukraine.

“I was in Kharkiv until April 12, 2022, and was through the first chapter of the war and previously had intensively covered the Maidan protests of 2014 and wrote a book about it. People often forget the war did not start on February 24, 2022, but in 2014, eight years ago,” Judah added in reference to Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

Offering a glimpse of war crimes and atrocities he witnessed, Judah added how the fall of the hero town of Irpin would have resulted in a different outcome for Ukraine.

“On one side of you, Irpin, and on the other side, you can see refugees in Bucha. You could see two Russian dead bodies left at the Ukrainian checkpoint and it was very strange. In terms of war crimes, Kyiv was very different from other parts of the country when it became clear rockets were unleashed randomly on residential areas after Russia failed to take Kharkiv. This is a war crime,” Judah said.

He further added how Russians had been leaving booby traps and bodies in public as a warning against those civilians who were giving away their locations to the Ukrainian resistance.

Highlighting the crisis in numbers, Esteban Gerardo Sacco of UNOCHA said Ukraine is a country of 40 million people and over 15.7 million people have been assessed to require humanitarian assistance and aid. “Eight million people are internally displaced and in most cases, Ukrainians have been able to receive and host them, but 6.2 million are refugees and have crossed the border,” Sacco stated.

Illustrating the situation further, Sacco added that 12 million Ukrainians are in urgent need of health assistance while a third of the population is considered food insecure.

“Fifteen point seven million people are estimated to require protection, out of which 2.1 million are children, and 3.3 million are women who are at risk of some form of gender-based violence, which brings forth the problem of human trafficking,” Sacco cautioned.

Sacco explained how donor countries and organizations have stepped up and opened up finances and support to aid Ukraine, but more needs to be done as cities like Kharkiv and Mariupol are damaged and destroyed.

“From having a hundred organizations working a month and a half ago, now we have 250 organizations who are actively engaging and scaling up response throughout the country. Two months ago, we covered only five percent of the country and now we are in every corner,” Sacco stated.

Daniel Langenkamp said, “There is a lot of hope in the air, and the main feeling on the streets of Kyiv and throughout the country is that Ukraine is going to win this war and approval ratings for President Zelensky are up.”

Outlining the U.S. support to Ukraine in the ongoing war, Langenkamp added how the country is the largest supplier of defense assistance to Ukraine, with about $3.8 billion given since the beginning of the war.

“With all of the training that we have done, a story needs to be written of how the U.S. training early on in the war helped reform the Ukrainian armed forces, made them a resilient and flexible fighting force, and then gave them the tools to fight the decrepit Russian system,” Langenkamp added.

He further outlined how initial concerns of brain drain from Ukraine turned into a blessing. When the war broke out, many Ukrainians could travel to Europe and get absorbed into existing families instead of turning into refugees. In addition, humanitarian aid through crowd-funding created a stronger support system.

Cautioning critics, Judah warned that the longer the war continues, the more Ukrainians will come together and fight back because of the sentiment that Russians are attacking people they previously called their brothers.

The final warning came from Eckel, who ended the conversation with a grim reminder of Russia’s slide into authoritarianism and a police state.

“Russia’s reversion to a police state will have some very unforeseen consequences in the months and years to come, and we should be watching these developments very closely.”