Bhaskar Chakravorti in Huffington Post – “Predicting the Trump Presidency: How I Blew It”

It has been almost a week and I am still not prepared for President Trump. I was sure that Hillary Clinton had it in the bag. I had convinced myself that Donald Trump’s arresting, but toxic, message, his misogyny and rage against the “other”, together with his general lack of discipline, organization or depth would do him in. Reassuringly, the polls were confirming that the electorate also agreed.

Of course, I was wrong. Of course, it is easy enough to declare it a “black swan”, the equivalent of “stuff happens; don’t blame me”, and move on. I simply couldn’t. How did I — and almost every “expert” I know or read or meet at conferences — get it so spectacularly wrong?